Area sees record rainfall Wednesday, Havre precip deficit cut by half

The Havre area saw record setting rainfall yesterday, with 0.46 inches dropping, cutting this year’s water deficit in half, and the area northeast of Havre saw similar precipitation.

National Weather Service Great Falls Lead Meteorologist Jim Brusda said the previous record for Oct. 11 was 0.24 inches, and Havre got nearly double that.

Meteorologist Matt Ludwig said Chinook and Rocky Boy’s Indian Reservation got even more with a full half inch, with Fort Belknap Indian Community and Harlem getting 0.34 inches.

Ludwig said Chester got about a tenth of an inch but Big Sandy got a fifth of that, with Chouteau County as a whole getting hardly any precipitation at all.

The Hi-Line’s years-long drought has persisted throughout 2023 despite a snowy winter that led to flooding in the area when the ice melted earlier this year.

The northern half of Hill County remains listed in moderate drought and the southern half in severe drought by the U.S. Drought Monitor, last updated Tuesday, and all of Liberty County and northern Chouteau County in severe drought as well.

The northern and southern borders of Blaine County are listed in moderate drought but the middle of the county, from its eastern to western borders is listed in severe drought.

Ludwig said it’s difficult to say how much this rain will affect future drought evaluations, but Hill and Blaine counties got enough that it should make some difference.

“It definitely helps,” he said.

Brusda said this morning that the average rainfall for the Havre area by this time of year is 10.5 inches, and yesterday’s deluge brought the area from 9.49 inches to 9.95, barely more than half an inch away from normal, though that may be the end of the good precipitation developments.

“(The 0.46 inches) that’s the good news, the bad news is that we’re just expecting some light showers for the rest of the day,” he said.

He said the rest of the year is difficult to predict precisely, but El Niño weather patterns seem to be incoming, which are characterized by warmer, drier conditions, so based on what they know it’s unlikely Havre is going to make up the moisture difference before the end of the year.

El Niño conditions occur when temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are warmer than normal, often leading to shifts in weather patterns, including warmer and dryer weather in the northern U.S. and Canada and cooler, wetter weather in the Gulf Coast and southeast U.S.

As for the more immediate future, the National Weather Service is predicting a high of 52 degrees today with a low of 32, with highs climbing to 55 Friday and 59 Saturday with mostly clear skies.

Sunday and Monday temps will jump back into the mid-to-high 60s, with lows staying in the mid-to-high 30s, though these temperatures will be accompanied by more cloudy skies.

Clouds and a slight chance of rain are expected Tuesday and Wednesday and highs may drop into the lower 60s.

Light winds from the east and south east are predicted between 6 and 10 miles per hour through the weekend, though Friday might see some gusts of up to 18 miles per hour.