Rain falls but not enough

This part of north-central Montana received some much-needed rain over the weekend, but not nearly enough.

The system that dropped rain primarily Thursday through Sunday did not push much precipitation this far north.

National Weather Service meteorologist Jim Brusda in Great Falls said the heaviest rains fell farther south, in Great Falls and to the east of there. He said the Lewistown area and places like Stanford and Hobson and Denton received the most, with some locations in that region receiving more than 2 inches.

He said in this region, Harlem and Turner received about a quarter of an inch, near the town of Milk River in Alberta, north of Shelby and Sunburst, .44 inches and Cut Bank to Browning received about a third of an inch.

Havre received seven-hundredths of an inch Friday and 12-hundredths Saturday, Brusda said.

“You got some rain, which is good, but nothing that is going to significantly improve things in the short term,” he said.

He said a shower might fall, but the next week in this area looks to be pretty dry.

And the rain is needed, with the region slipping deeper and deeper into a water deficit. As of Monday, Havre is listed at 7.06 inches of precipitation for the year, 3.22 inches short of the normal value for Oct. 3 of 10.28 inches.

And the deficit goes back for several years.

Since Jan. 1, 2020, Havre has seen 23.93 inches of precipitation, almost 10 inches short of the normal value of 33.68 inches for that time duration.

The U.S. Drought Monitor issued Thursday, Sept. 29, lists part of eastern Hill County and western Chouteau County in D3 Extreme Drought Conditions, as is western Chouteau County, with the rest of this area in D2 Severe Drought conditions.

Cooler, wetter weather is expected in this part of the United States as the world has a rare “triple-dip La Niña,” where the temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are cooler than normal for the third year in a row.

But, Brusda said, that might not mean much for this part of Montana.

He said the regional aspect looks at the average over several states, including Montana and parts of Idaho, Wyoming and the Dakotas. That might not mean much in specific areas or a county-by-county assessment, he said.

Brusda said expectations are for counties along the Hi-Line to not have much impact from this year’s La Niña, as in the past two years.

That doesn’t mean the area won’t see periods of cold, possibly very cold, and wetter, possibly very wet, weather, but the chances of that happening probably will not be as high as other parts of the region.