2022 big game hunting forecast

Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks

HELENA — Are you ready for hunting season? FWP can help. In addition to the following hunting forecast, FWP provides online information about hunting access, including our popular Block Management Program. Through the program, we coordinate with landowners to provide hunting access to more than 7 million acres of private land.

The interactive Hunt Planner map allows users to look at information for various species, including hunting districts and regulations. The hunt planner interactive map is a great way to access our block management information, so if you’re planning a hunt in a certain area, you can see if there are Block Management Areas available to expand your opportunity.

As a reminder, many hunting districts have changed. Don’t assume the HD you have hunted for the last several years is the same as it used to be. Double check the regulations to be sure.

And, as always, you can contact our staff at any of our regional offices around the state. They’re happy to help and can often get you pointed in the right direction with just a few simple tips.

Destination: NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA

As is often the case, hunters have both good news and bad news when it comes to the big game hunting outlook for 2022 in FWP’s Region 4, north-central Montana.

While elk numbers are at all-time high levels with extra harvest opportunities in some areas, mule deer numbers generally still remain lower than in previous years. Mule deer in some mountain ranges experienced significant declines in the last 10 to 15 years, and although mule deer populations in prairie habitats are faring a bit better, drought conditions have hindered populations in some of the eastern areas of Region 4. White-tailed deer populations are considered strong, but pronghorn numbers are mixed, and in many areas, they have still not completely recovered from the tough winter of 2017/18.

Along the northern Rocky Mountain Front, biologist Ryan Rauscher reports that elk numbers are generally above their long-term average, with bull to cow ratios at or near average. In the Sweetgrass Hills, elk numbers remain well over objective, giving hunters opportunity to harvest antlerless elk.

The southern Rocky Mountain Front shows overall stability in elk numbers compared to recent years, according to area biologist Brent Lonner. Sun River elk remain near long-term average for the population with bull to cow numbers slightly above long-term average.

Elk numbers southwest of Augusta and in the Birdtail Hills remain above long-term average, with extended (shoulder) seasons in place for both areas to help address high elk numbers.

In most cases, elk populations throughout the Little Belt, Castle and eastern Big Belt Mountains area are at the high end of the range observed in recent times. “Elk numbers in the western Little Belts and eastern Big Belts have increased the most, despite the liberal hunting regulations that have been in place there for some time,” said biologist Jay Kolbe. 

Near Great Falls, biologist Jake Doggett said, elk are doing well in the Highwood Mountains and Devils Kitchen hunting districts, where numbers remain well above long-term averages. There was a record high elk count this year, including bulls, across HDs 445 and 455 this past March. Elk are very close to objective numbers in the Little Belts (old HD 413).

Across much of the Golden Triangle, mule deer populations remain above average overall with some increases in antlerless licenses. White-tailed deer numbers are increasing across much of Rauscher’s and Lonner’s areas as well, and in several of their hunting districts, they report that white-tailed deer numbers are strong and should provide good harvest opportunities for both bucks and antlerless deer. Hunters can expect deer distribution to be somewhat patchy because of the drought this year, and they will be concentrated in areas with good forage and cover. 

Kolbe reports that, although mule deer in the Little Belt, Castle and eastern Big Belt Mountains experienced significant declines 10 to 15 years ago, their numbers have been steadily increasing since then.

“I’ve seen some very nice bucks come out of this area during the last several seasons,” said Jay Kolbe, FWP wildlife biologist based in white Sulphur Springs.

Mule deer numbers in the agricultural areas near Great Falls are doing well, but populations in the mountain/mountain foothill areas are still rebounding from lower numbers of the past few years. In some areas near the mountains, mule deer numbers are more than 25 percent below long-term average and the regulations changed to reflect this, so only mule deer bucks can be harvested there on the general deer license. White-tailed deer numbers remain strong and there should be great opportunities for hunters. Doggett suggests utilizing the available whitetail B licenses in the mountain foothill areas where the mule deer regulations switched to antlered buck only.

Pronghorn population numbers in the Golden Triangle are good. Near the Sweetgrass Hills, pronghorn have been well under long-term average in previous years but have recovered somewhat and are just slightly below average this year. The result is more opportunity with an increase in both either-sex and doe/fawn licenses. In the heart of the Golden Triangle district of HD 404, pronghorn numbers have been above average the past couple years. Increased hunter opportunity and drought have brought down pronghorn numbers and licenses have been reduced slightly this year, reflecting the lower numbers seen in summer surveys.

Pronghorn numbers in the greater Augusta area and locations near the Birdtail Hills continue to show stability in numbers, although slightly below long-term average observations. According to Lonner, July surveys showed near average buck numbers but below average fawn numbers. For that reason, among others, pronghorn licenses were reduced in HD 444 for the 2022 season.

Kolbe also reported that pronghorn populations are also doing well.

“I saw around 60 fawns per 100 does during my pronghorn survey flights this summer, which is good fawn production,” he said.”

Overall pronghorn numbers both north and south of the Little Belts (HDs 430 and 490) continue to recover from declines we saw following the harsh winters a few years ago.” 

Surveys suggest that pronghorn across many of Doggett’s hunting districts are still recovering from the tough winters of 2017 and 2018 and also recent drought conditions. For the most part numbers are still below long-term averages. Fawn production seemed better in areas with more cropland, but buck to doe ratios were higher in the mountain foothill areas.

Destination: NORTHEAST MONTANA

Elk surveys in the Missouri River Breaks in 2022 were 43 percent below the long-term average, from 1995 to 2022. The 2021 elk survey in the Bears Paw area was above the 2019 survey and over twice the 15-year average. Most elk hunting opportunities are allocated through limited permit or B License drawing in the region, except for HD 690, where general licenses are valid for antlerless elk during the general season. A few districts where elk habitat and numbers are very low and difficult to find offer either-sex harvest on a general license. Please see the current hunting regulations to learn more.

White-tailed deer densities saw a decline following another significant epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) that occurred mainly on the eastern portion of the region in the Culbertson area along the Missouri River.

“Scattered pockets of EHD were also observed along the Milk River from Glasgow to Malta and out on the prairie habitats in the eastern portion of the region,” added Williamson.

The 2022 survey showed white-tailed deer density averages of 7.3 deer-per-square mile across the deer trend areas, which is 31 percent below the long-term average of 10.6 deer-per-square mile.

Mule deer populations are above average across much of the region but vary depending on the hunting district. Overall, numbers during spring surveys showed the region-wide population at 31 percent above long-term average. Generally, mule deer populations remain above average in the eastern third of the region as well as the areas north of Highway 2.

According to Ryan Williamson, Outlook-area biologist, “The winter of 2021-2022 was generally mild and favorable for wintering deer. No significant mortality events were reported in the region for mule deer.”

Williamson went on to say that the favorable winter, combined with already high deer numbers observed over the last few years, has led to numbers remaining above average across much of the region.

Obtaining antlerless deer B licenses

Antlerless whitetail B licenses will again be available for over-the-counter purchase, with a limit of four per hunter. These licenses are valid across all of Region 6 to allow hunters to use the license where whitetail numbers may be higher.

Antlerless mule deer B Licenses remain at high levels, and there may be surplus tags still available in some districts.

Please review the fwp.mt.gov website for the most up-to-date information on surplus licenses.

Note: hunters may possess a total of seven Deer B Licenses in any combination. Game damage and management deer B licenses do not count toward this total.

In general, pronghorn populations have been slowly increasing the past 10 years across the region from historic lows in 2011. While some survey areas have observed increased numbers and are at or above their long-term averages, there are still a few areas where pronghorn are still below their long-term average, mainly in the Havre area.

Total numbers have increased from last year, with populations near levels observed in 2020 (prior to the 2021 region-wide drought) and similar to population levels observed prior to the winter mortality in 2010-2011. Buck ratios are at average levels (46:100), and fawn ratios remain below average, likely due to drought conditions. Moderate numbers of pronghorn licenses were distributed through the drawing system, and those who have drawn licenses should have a good opportunity to harvest a pronghorn.

2022 upland game bird forecast

Destination: NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA

Upland game bird populations are highly dependent upon weather, and the past year has provided both good and bad weather conditions for pheasants, sharp-tailed grouse and Hungarian partridge in Region 4.

Based on spring lek surveys for sharp-tailed grouse and crow count surveys for pheasants, recruitment varied from poor to good depending on location. Overall, upland bird numbers are trending higher than 2021 but still remain below the long-term average across the region as populations are still recovering from the harsh winter of 2017/2018.

The past winter provided temperatures near average, but variable amounts of precipitation. While drought conditions statewide have shown some improvement, some areas of Region 4 still remain in the highest category of drought found anywhere in Montana, and bird numbers in these areas reflect that fact and remain very low.

Based on weather station data, spring temperatures tended to be below average, precipitation was near or slightly below average, and nesting habitat considered fair to good. Temperatures in June were near average with below-average precipitation, but in July and August, the summer turned hot and dry. Although there are areas where grass and vegetation still remain green and grasshoppers are abundant, the continued drought conditions are expected to cause habitat quality to decline further over the remaining weeks of summer. 

Taking weather and habitat conditions into consideration, overall hunting success for upland birds is predicted to be below average, although still very dependent on hunter effort. Since habitat conditions in the area are quite variable, the key to a successful season for hunters will be finding the areas where the habitat is in the best condition and focusing their hunting efforts there.

When choosing a place to hunt, hunters should first consider their target species. Sharp-tailed grouse will be found in grasslands intermixed with farmland and foothills, where they tend to roost on the tops of hills and draws with grass and forb cover averaging shin height. On windy days, sharptails will generally stay on the leeward side of a hill, out of the wind.

Pheasants will generally be found closer to riparian areas and grain sources. Finding areas with grass higher than your shin, mixed with shrubs and small draws and near a food source (farmland/shrub berries) is a good place to start.

Gray partridge (also known as Hungarian partridge) thrive in all of the above habitat types but their populations are more susceptible to extreme weather. In general, large patches of grass and CRP and draws or fields with shrubby cover near farmland are good areas to start looking for gray partridge and other upland birds on the prairie.

Blue grouse, ruffed grouse and spruce grouse — of the three, blue and ruffed grouse make up the majority of the mountain grouse population. There is habitat overlap with all three species but in general ruffed grouse tend to occupy riparian areas in the lower elevations of the mountains that also have a mixture of shrubs, aspens and conifers. Blue and spruce grouse tend to occupy areas with a combination of old and new growth conifers with low-lying berries in the higher elevations. Forest grouse populations are considered to be stable in the region.

Destination: NORTHEAST MONTANA

Habitat conditions, spring adult populations and recent brood observations start out slightly above average in the eastern third of the region but decline to the west.

The western portion of the region remains in severe drought conditions for the second year in a row. This has negatively impacted vegetation throughout the season and has likely led to a decrease in nest and brood success of all species. The center of the region, Phillips and Valley counties, saw marginally improved conditions this hatching season and were briefly out of drought status in July. Bird populations in this area of the region are expected to be slightly below average. The eastern portions of the region all received better precipitation this year and habitat conditions steadily improved from early May through July. As a result, bird populations are expected to be stable in this area and similar to last year, around average or slightly above average.

A grasshopper outbreak has infested much of the region for the second year in a row. While precipitation has improved vegetation conditions in the eastern two-thirds of the region, grasshopper damage has impacted the quality of the cover again in many areas. However, these grasshoppers also provide a valuable food source for game bird chicks, so the overall impact to upland bird populations depends on the local area. From check station and wing barrel data, we observe that juveniles (birds hatched that year) typically comprise most of the birds harvested (60 to 80 percent depending on the species). Where drought conditions have persisted in the region, hunters will likely find lower juvenile numbers on the landscape and will have to cover more ground and seek out “good” habitat conditions to be successful.

Spring “crowing” surveys that measure the rooster pheasant populations in the eastern third of the region showed populations around average or slightly above average, with populations in the western third of the region well below average. The center of the region falls in between these two, with pheasant populations starting the year slightly below average. 

Brood success will be low in areas hardest hit by the drought and improve eastward.  The areas that received good moisture throughout the early brood-rearing season in late June into July will have the greatest brood success and best pheasant numbers this fall.

In Region 6, gray partridge (also known as Hungarian partridge) populations are not monitored through any structured surveys, but harvest estimates show their populations do track with the other bird species in the region to some degree. Partridge harvest in 2021 was above average in the eastern portions of the region but 60 percent of average in the western portions of the region, which was still a significant improvement over the previous five years. Overall, partridge numbers this fall are likely to remain average to above average for the eastern half of the region, and below average for the western half of the region. Gray partridge is almost always the least numerous of our game birds in the region, and as a result, are unevenly distributed on the landscape. Even where numbers are good, hunters may need to try many areas of suitable cover to find coveys. The effort to find suitable cover may increase substantially in the drought stricken western portions of the region this year.

Based on spring survey data, sage-grouse populations are in decent shape in Region 6. In the central and western portion of the region, where sage-grouse habitat exists, adult numbers were slightly above average in Valley County, but below average in all areas to the west. While sage grouse appear to tolerate drought conditions somewhat better than our other game birds, the continued dry conditions, especially in the far-western portions of the region, may impact sage grouse production this year. Conditions in the center of the region may be more favorable and sage grouse numbers are likely to be similar to last year this fall. Core sage-grouse habitat primarily exists south of Highway 2 and is composed of mixed grass and Wyoming big sagebrush rangeland. Drought has likely impacted brood success, especially in areas lacking riparian areas. Hunters should expect to find better numbers of sage-grouse in areas containing some riparian habitat.

Grouse hunters headed to Region 6 will likely encounter sharptail populations similar to the fall of 2021. Adult spring surveys ranged from above average in the eastern half of the region to below average in the western half of the region. Due to the drought conditions, juvenile numbers will be down in the western areas and subsequently decrease overall numbers and harvest. In the eastern portions of the region, sharptail numbers are expected to be fair to good. Brood success in eastern areas appears to be good in areas that received precipitation in spring and early summer.