Rain not likely enough to end drought

As the first day of summer arrives, and June starts to wind down, the good news is, Havre has received some much-needed rain. The bad news is, it's likely not enough to alter the drought conditions the area has been mired in.

"Havre needed the rain," National Weather Service Great Falls Meteorologist Jim Brusda said. "I don't know if it's enough to improve the drought from the 'Extreme' category to the 'Severe' category. It's really hard to say whether that changes when the update comes out Thursday. Things can change so quickly this time of year. So even though you got all that rain, then there was two days of hot weather and humidity last week, and that dried it out by as much as 20 percent. So the rain definitely helped. But is it enough to improve things? That's tough to say right now."

Every little bit has helped. To date, Havre has received 2.9 inches of rain in June, which is 1.24 inches more than normal. However, Brusda noted that, since Oct. 1, Havre has received just 6.2 inches of rain, which is 1.3 inches below normal. Couple that data with the fact that January and February were below normal for snow, and March was extremely dry, and Havre, Hill County and the Hi-Line still sits in a desperately bad drought situation, even with the rains and some flooding in the Bear Paw Mountains last week.

"You needed this rain event on Monday to really hit, and it looks like it won't," Brusda said. "That system is mostly going to stay to the west of Havre."

Moving forward, not much precipitation is in the forecast for the Havre area over the next six to 10 days, with just a slight chance Friday and Friday night.

"It looks like things will warm up mid-week and again in the weekend, with Friday being about 10 degrees below normal," Brusda said. "That's the day there's a slight chance for showers, but it's not much and it's only one. So, overall, it looks like a warmer, drier pattern for the next week to 10 days."

Warmer and drier will certainly be a relief to parts of Montana that have seen catastrophic flooding in the last two weeks, especially the Yellowstone River basin and its tributaries, which were part of historic flooding last week that closed Yellowstone National Park and devastated communities like Red Lodge, Cooke City, Gardiner, Livingston and others. Parts of northwest Montana, including Glacier National Park and the Flathead River Valley have also seen flooding due to rain, and an unusually high and lingering snowpack this spring.

But in the Havre area, moisture would still be a welcomed sight, though as of now, it could trend toward another possibly dry summer.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration just released its three-month outlook, where it has a 33 percent chance of precipitation being below normal for the Havre area from July-September. July is also predicted to have slightly below normal precipitation.

As for summer temperatures, they will trend on the cooler side as well. According to NOAA, July is predicted to be at or slightly below average for temperatures in the Havre area, with the same forecast for August. September calls for a 40 percent chance of above-average temperatures. The average daily high for July is 86 degrees, followed by 84 in August and 74 in September.

The forecast for this week calls for highs in the 70s and low 80s today through Sunday, with the exception of Friday's high of 63 with high winds. Next week has highs back in the 80s as well, with little to no precipitation projected.