Is it enough rain to end the drought?

After months of drought, an atmospheric river finally brought some moisture to this part of Montana - too much in the Bear Paw Mountains, leading to restricted access on Rocky Boy's Indian Reservation and again flooding parts of Beaver Creek Park.

The area had seen a few years of moisture shortages and drought conditions, with some local ranchers selling off stock by the start of May and looking to see if they needed to sell more and some local crop producers saying their wheat already was starting to burn.

But rain in June, including a storm last week that brought the first local major flooding since the federally declared disasters in 2010, '11 and '13, could help with that.

The system that brought the precipitation to this part of the state has hit much of Montana, including causing the disastrous flooding in and around Yellowstone National Park and east of there.

By Saturday, the last available date before printing deadline for this story, the recording station at Havre City-County Airport reported 2.87 inches for the month to that date, almost double the amount that fell from Jan. 1 to June 3. 1.45 inches.

No measurable rain fell in Havre from Thursday through Saturday, although rain again was falling Sunday and rain was predicted in the area through Monday night. The forecast generally called for between a tenth and a half-an-inch Sunday, with higher levels possible from thunderstorms, and from a quarter inch to a half-inch in eastern Blaine County to up to two inches in Liberty County possible Monday.

Beaver Creek Park staff was working on cleaning up the flood damage by Thursday morning.

The Natural Resources Department of the Chippewa Cree Tribe on Rocky Boy's Indian Reservation posted Wednesday that access to parts of the mountains near Big Sandy Creek and Beaver Creek was closed.

It said Friday afternoon that restrictions still were in place due to high water levels.

Some parts of the mountains received more than 6 inches by Wednesday, leading to the restrictions and the flooding on Beaver Creek Park, which received more than 3 inches by Thursday morning at Camp Kiwanis.

The post on the tribe's Facebook page Friday said the following restrictions would remain in place until further notice in both the Beaver Creek and Big Sandy Creek areas on the reservation:

• Day use in the mountains is permitted, but overnight camping is closed.

• Water levels remained high and significant damage occurred to some campgrounds and roadways. People were asked to stay on the main roadways.

• Campgrounds and roads not considered safe will be flagged and people are asked to adhere to the precautionary flagging.

But as of June 18, Havre was still short of where it normally is for precipitation by that time of year.

The National Drought Monitor map, which had data through last Tuesday and missed some of last week's rain, still showed the area as in severe drought for most of Chouteau County and extreme drought for most of Blaine, Hill and Liberty counties, with patches of exceptional drought - the most severe listing - in southwest Hill and southern Liberty counties.

Off-and-on precip leaves water shortages

The region has been working against water deficits for most of the past two years, with heavy precipitation falling in some weeks or months with long dry spells in between.

The shortages tended to show up both on the calendar years, from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, and on the water years, measured from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30.

Much of the precipitation in this region for Oct. 1, 2020, to Sept. 30, 2021, came between October and April.

Havre saw 8.9 inches of snow and .84 inches of precipitation in October 2020, with the norms at 2 inches and .58 inches, respectively. In November 2020 it received another 10.1 inches of snow and .65 inches of precipitation, with norms of 5.3 inches for snow and .43 inches for precipitation.

But then things dried up and warmed up, with temperatures often in the 40s and 50s or warmer in December 2020 and Weather Service reporting Big Sandy received no precipitation at all, with a norm of .5 inches, and Chester seeing 1.6 inches of snow, norm not listed, and .16 inches of precipitation compared to a norm of .48 inches.

Havre received .7 inches of snow, norm 7.4 inches, and .08 inches of precipitation, norm .4 inches, in December 2020 while Chinook received 1 inch of snow, norm 5.8 inches, and .05 inches of precipitation, norm .48 inches.

That continued in January 2021. Chinook was listed as having no precipitation, with norms of 6.4 inches for snow and .49 inches of precipitation, while Havre was listed as receiving traces of snow on a few days for no measurable accumulation and .02 inches of precipitation, compared to norms of 7.1 inches of snow and .33 inches of precipitation.

That all turned around in February 2021.

The Havre area was listed as having .81 inches of precipitation that month, with a norm of .28 inches, and 10.2 inches of snow, with the norm 5.8 inches.

But the rest of the winter and spring, aside from a few heavy storms, remained dry.

By the end of June 2021, Havre was short 2.5 inches for the water year, with 5.81 inches and a norm of 8.31 inches, and short almost as much for the calendar year, with 4.24 inches compared to a norm of 6.67 inches.

About a half-inch fell the next month.

By the first week of August, Havre had 4.76 inches of rain for the calendar year, a little more than half the normal value of 8.23 inches.

Rain finally fell later that month, and by Aug. 25, 1.01 inches of rain had fallen at the reporting station at the Havre City-County Airport, putting that station at .28 inches above normal for the month.

But the region was still short for the year. At the Havre City-County Airport, the total for the calendar year by Aug. 25 was 5.77 inches, still well-short of the normal value of 8.93 inches.

And it was still far short of normal for the water year. By Aug. 25, Havre reported 7.34 inches for the water year with the norm 10.57 inches.

Then the precipitation dropped off again starting in September, which recorded almost no precipitation.

Havre recorded .05 inches of precipitation that month, compared to a norm of 1.03 inches - normally one of the wetter months in the region.

The precipitation improved in October and November, with the station in Havre recording almost-but not-quite-normal levels of precipitation. December precipitation brought Havre to above the normal level for the water year that starts Oct. 1, though it was still far short on the calendar year.

National Weather Service reported that Havre received 12 inches of snow in December 2021 by the end of the month, more than four inches above the norm of 7.9 inches for Dec. 31, which translated to more than three-quarters of an inch of precipitation again ahead of the norm of about .40 inches.

But at that point, the total for the 2021 calendar year was 7.69 inches, far short of the norm of 11.82 inches.

For the water year, Weather Service listed 1.8 inches recorded at its Havre station by Jan. 5, compared to a normal value of 1.72 inches.

From Christmas through the start of March this year, the weather was generally spring- or even summer-like, with flashes of cold and snow mixing in.

More dry than wet the first part of this year

The holidays brought bitter below-zero temperatures, and some snow, but that was followed by highs getting into the 30s and 40s and even 50s by mid-January.

Then temperatures started to drop again for a few days, with a bit more snow falling.

Then they rose again, and stayed unseasonable warm until mid-February, when cold and snow again hit the area including below-zero weather.

But the snow was not nearly enough to get the region back to normal levels.

National Weather Service reports that, at the recording station at the Havre City-County Airport, as of Feb. 21, Havre had .36 inches so far this calendar year, compared to a normal amount of .72 inches.

The water year was a bit better, with Havre showing 2.20 inches Oct. 1 to Feb. 21, compared to a norm of 2.36 inches.

By the start of June the region had seen little precipitation in the previous months, missing heavy snows that created blizzard conditions and shutdowns in southern and eastern Montana and North Dakota and rainfall that hit much of the state, but not this area.

Some rain did fall in May, showers that brought a bit of moisture, but the region was still sinking deeper into a moisture deficit.

By May 26, the reporting station at the Havre City-County Airport listed .39 inches for the month compared to a normal value of 1.37 inches.

At that time, for the calendar year, Havre had 1.43 inches of precipitation compared to a normal value of 3.69 inches, a 2.26-inch moisture deficit.

And the deficit for the water year had grown to 2.06 inches, with 3.27 inches of precipitation recorded at the Havre station since Oct. 1 with a normal value of 5.33 inches, a deficit reflected in the extreme drought conditions in Blaine, Chouteau, Hill and Liberty counties.

Then the June rains hit, but the area still is short on water compared to normal.

By Sunday morning, Weather Service reported the 2.87 inches in June brought Havre to 4.32 inches for the calendar year, still 1.46 inches short of how much normally has fallen by June 18, 5.78 inches.

For the water year, measured from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30, by June 18 Havre had 6.16 inches, 1.26 inches short of the normal value, 7.42 inches.

What's ahead?

But the atmospheric river that brought flooding to Yellowstone and Beaver Creek Park did help bring up totals for north-central Montana.

By the end of Saturday, Weather Service reported that the Havre station recorded 4.32 inches for the calendar year with the normal total 5.78 inches, still 1.46 inches short.

For the water year, the station recorded 6.16 inches by June 18, 1.26 inches short of the normal amount of 7.42 inches.

Those shortages could have been made up with the rain expected June 18-20.

How the rest of the summer will play out is anyone's guess.

June 16, National Weather Service Meteorologist Christian Cassell in Great Falls said June 25 to the start of July is normally when the jet stream coming off the Pacific Ocean moves farther north, taking the precipitation it often brings with it and leaving this region in dryer, warmer conditions.

But that might not happen this year.

Cassell said the jet stream this year was unusually strong, bringing more moisture and cool weather and pushing more of that inland than usual.

He said the atmospheric river - where conditions create a relatively narrow trough of very moist air running through a region - that brought the rain and flooding, both in the Bear Paw Mountains and in the south at Yellowstone National Park and the surrounding area, could last longer than expected and than is normal.

He said rain and possibly severe thunderstorms were expected in north-central Montana that weekend possibly through today, but that it was likely to dry up for a bit after that.

The prediction generally was for the region to dry out by the end of June, more like a normal summer, but Cassell said June 16 he wasn't sure that would happen.

The online Climate Prediction Center of National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, which includes National Weather Service, showed equal chances for above- or below-normal temperatures and precipitation for July.

Its three-month outlook, for July through September, predicted an equal chance for the northern part of this part of north-central Montana for above- or below-normal temperatures and a slightly higher chance, 33 percent to 40 percent, of below-normal precipitation.