State continues in drought mode

Although a system is expected to bring some snow in the west and southwest part of the state the next couple of days, this area is expected to remain fairly warm and dry through the region, as drought continues in much of the state.

The heaviest accumulations from the storm moving into the southwest are expected east of Interstate 15 and south of Interstate 90, especially in the Big Sky and West Yellowstone areas, National Weather Service reports. About one inch of snowfall also is predicted in the St. Mary area on the edge of Glacier National Park, a Weather System graphic shows.

But in Blaine, Chouteau, Hill and Liberty counties the forecast through Monday predicts no precipitation and highs in the 40s and 50s - even some in the 60s - with lows in the 20s.

That as a moisture deficit in the region, and much of Montana, continues.

At the reporting station at the Havre City-County Airport, National Weather Service shows .75 inches of precipitation for the calendar year, short more than a half-inch from the normal value on March 29 of 1.26 inches.

The precipitation for March is listed at .39 inches, short of the norm of .45 inches.

For the water year, which runs from Oct. 1 through Sept. 30, the Havre station shows a deficit of nearly a third of an inch, at 2.59 inches compared to a normal value of 2.90 inches.

Most of the state, aside from the west and northwest region about from Missoula through Kalispell to the northwest corner of the state - most of which is listed with no drought condition - is listed on the national drought monitor as in severe to extreme drought, with Blaine, Chouteau, Hill and Liberty counties all listed in extreme drought, the second-worst rating used on the monitor.

The seasonal outlook on the drought monitor shows drought persisting through June 30, as it does for most of the western and south-central part of the United States.

The national climate prediction center shows a 33 percent to 40 percent chance of below-normal temperatures and an equal chance for below- or above-normal precipitation for this region in the coming weeks, with the extended outlook through July predicting about-normal temperatures, possibly with an increasing chance of above-normal temperatures, and the forecast leaning below-normal precipitation.

Up and down temperatures

March has continued a trend of going up and down with temperatures, giving much-warmer than normal highs and lows intermixed with periods of colder weather.

The start of the month, highs were about normal in the high 30s but the second week of March saw temperatures drop into the teens and 20s for highs.

That was soon followed by highs again in the 30s and 40s, creeping into the 50s and 60s by the end of the second week.

And the temperatures continued to climb. In Havre, the high hit 71 March 23 - short of the record high of 76 hit in 1993 - and the high Monday was 73 in Havre, missing the record of 74 set in 1987 by one degree. The normal high for March 28 in Havre is 50 degrees.

The lows also have trended above normal. Monday the low was 33 degrees, with the normal value 26 degrees.

The record low for Havre March 28 was set in 1894 at minus 17 degrees.

Seasonal weather off for months

The variation in weather continues some two years or more of changes, with the weather bringing some precipitation that has kept the region from completely drying out, but generally never getting it back to where it should be for moisture.

Havre saw 12 inches of snow in December by the end of the month, more than four inches above the norm of 7.9 inches for Dec. 31. That equaled more than three-quarters of an inch of precipitation with the norm of about .40 inches.

But at the point, the total for the 2021 calendar year was 7.69 inches, far short of the norm of 11.82 inches, although the picture for the water year was better.

After a slightly wet August - Havre recorded 1.04 inches of precipitation for the month, compared to a normal value of .89 inches - the precipitation dropped off starting in September, which recorded almost no precipitation.

Havre recorded .05 inches of precipitation that month, compared to a norm of 1.03 inches - normally one of the wetter months in the region.

The precipitation improved in October and November, with the station in Havre recording almost-but-not-quite-normal levels of precipitation. Havre saw .66 inches compared to a normal value of .69 inches for October and .42 inches compared to a normal level of .48 inches for November.

The December precipitation brought Havre to above the normal level for the water year that starts Oct. 1, though it was still far short on the calendar year.

For the water year, Weather Service listed 1.8 inches recorded at its Havre station by Jan. 5, compared to a normal value of 1.72 inches.

But that was too late to help 2021, with drought and fires hitting the area.

Rain finally hits

Rains started falling in August.

By Aug. 25, the Havre area saw 1.01 inches of rain fall, putting the report at the weather station at .28 inches above normal for the month.

Three-quarters of an inch of that rain fell in the previous two weeks.

The first week of August, Havre had 4.76 inches of rain for the calendar year, a little more than half the normal value of 8.23 inches.

The total for the calendar year by Aug. 25 was 5.77 inches, still well-short of the normal value of 8.93 inches.

And it was still far short of normal for the water year, which runs from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30. By Aug. 25, Havre reported 7.34 inches for the water year with the norm 10.57 inches.

Much of the water year precipitation for 2020-21 in this region came in three months between October and April.

Havre saw 8.9 inches of snow and .84 inches of precipitation in October 2020, with the norms 2 inches and .58 inches, respectively. In November 2020 it received another 10.1 inches of snow and .65 inches of precipitation, with norms of 5.3 inches for snow and .43 inches for precipitation.

Chinook saw 6.6 inches of snow and .92 inches of precipitation in October 2020, with norms of 1.1 inches of snow and .71 inches of precipitation, and 21 inches of snow and 1.42 inches of precipitation in November 2020, with norms of 5.5 inches of snow and .55 inches of precipitation.

The Weather Service chart reported Chester received no October 2020 snow - the norm was missing on the chart - but .96 inches of precipitation compared to a norm of .55 inches, and 22.3 inches of snow and 1.96 inches of precipitation in November 2020. Normal snowfall for that month was missing but the norm for precipitation was .38 inches.

Big Sandy saw 1.03 inches of October 2020 precipitation with a norm of .81 inches and .61 inches of precipitation with a norm of .51 inches in November. Snowfall was not listed on those tables.

Information was not available on Harlem for daily data by month in 2020, or for 2021.

But then things dried up and warmed up, with temperatures often in the 40s and 50s or warmer in December 2020 and Weather Service reporting Big Sandy received no precipitation at all, with a norm of .5 inches, and Chester seeing 1.6 inches of snow, norm not listed, and .16 inches of precipitation compared to a norm of .48 inches.

Havre received .7 inches of snow, norm 7.4 inches, and .08 inches of precipitation, norm .4 inches, in December 2020 while Chinook received 1 inch of snow, norm 5.8 inches, and .05 inches of precipitation, norm .48 inches.

That continued in January 2021. Most of the data for Big Sandy and Chester was missing, but Chinook is listed as having no precipitation, with norms of 6.4 inches for snow and .49 inches of precipitation, while Havre is listed as receiving traces of snow on a few days for no measurable accumulation and .02 inches of precipitation, compared to norms of 7.1 inches of snow and .33 inches of precipitation.

That all turned around in February 2021.

The Havre area is listed as having .81 inches of precipitation that month, with a norm of .28 inches, and 10.2 inches of snow, with the norm 5.8 inches.

Chinook was listed with less snow, 3.5 inches for the month compared to a norm of 6.2 inches, but had .54 inches of precipitation with a norm of .4 inches.

Data for Chester and Big Sandy in February was not available.

But the rest of the winter and spring, aside from a few heavy storms, remained dry.

By the end of June, Havre was short 2.5 inches for the water year, with 5.81 inches and a norm of 8.31 inches, and short almost as much for the calendar year, with 4.24 inches compared to a norm of 6.67 inches.