Cold again, but warmth is on the way, again

Cold and snow are back in the area - apparently briefly - but what that means in the long term, both for weather and for drought conditions, is unknown.

After temperatures in the 40s and even to the 60s in the past few weeks, with virtually no snow, the white stuff is again on the ground in this region and temperatures are back below zero with a wind chill advisory in effect for much of the state west of the divide and bitter wind chills expected through Wednesday.

But that is not expected to last, with temperatures going back above freezing by Saturday and into the 40s by Monday, forecasters predict.

And what it will do for moisture and drought conditions greatly depends on what happens in the next few weeks and months.

The national drought monitor showed this morning patches of D4 Exceptional Drought - the most severe condition listed - in areas of the state including southern Chouteau and Blaine counties with the rest of Blaine, Chouteau, Hill and Liberty counties in D3 extreme drought.

Most of the rest of the state was in D3 or D2 Severe Drought status, except for northwestern Montana which even includes a large patch of "No Drought" condition.

And the seasonal outlook predicts north-central Montana will improve but remain in drought conditions, with the southern part of the state and the northeast corner remaining in drought.

About-normal weather - for this part of the world - is forecast by the Climate Prediction Center through May, with most of the state in equal chances for above- or below-normal temperatures and precipitation, except for the northwest corner of Montana which is expected to have an above-normal chance for precipitation.

Weather can't make up its mind

Since the Christmas and New Year holidays the weather has been generally spring- or even summer-like, with flashes of cold and snow mixing in.

The holidays brought bitter below-zero temperatures, and some snow, but that was followed by highs getting into the 30s and 40s and even 50s by mid-January.

Then temperatures started to drop again for a few days, with a bit more snow falling.

Then they rose again, and had stayed unseasonable warm until the end of last week, when cold and snow again hit the area including the below-zero weather this week and a bit more snow.

But the snow is not nearly enough to get the region back to normal levels.

National Weather Service reports that, at the recording station at the Havre City-County Airport, as of Monday Havre has had .36 inches so far this calendar year, compared to a normal amount of .72 inches.

With odd weather patterns going back through the start of 2021, the water year - measured from Oct. 1 through Sept. 30 - was a bit better, with Havre showing 2.20 inches since Oct. 1, compared to a norm of 2.36 inches.

And though it hasn't stuck around, snow has fallen, with Havre recording 18.8 inches since Dec. 1, compared to a norm of 22.6 inches. That includes 3.3 inches this month, with a norm of 5.4 inches.

A bizarre fall and winter

The weather has been off-and-on for more than a year, bringing spots of precipitation that have kept the region from completely drying out, but generally never getting it back to where it should be for moisture.

National Weather Service reported that Havre received 12 inches of snow in December by the end of the month, more than four inches above the norm of 7.9 inches for Dec. 31, which translated to more than three-quarters of an inch of precipitation again ahead of the norm of about .40 inches.

But at the point, the total for the 2021 calendar year was 7.69 inches, far short of the norm of 11.82 inches.

But the picture for the water year was better.

After a slightly wet August - Havre recorded 1.04 inches of precipitation for the month, compared to a normal value of .89 inches - the precipitation dropped off starting in September, which recorded almost no precipitiation.

Havre recorded .05 inches of precipitation that month, compared to a norm of 1.03 inches - normally one of the wetter months in the region.

The precipitation improved in October and November, with the station in Havre recording almost- but not-quite-normal levels of precipitation. Havre saw .66 inches compared to a normal value of .69 inches for October and .42 inches compared to a normal level of .48 inches for November.

The December precipitation brought Havre to above the normal level for the water year that starts Oct. 1, though it was still far short on the calendar year.

For the water year, Weather Service listed 1.8 inches recorded at its Havre station by Jan. 5, compared to a normal value of 1.72 inches.

But that was too late to help 2021, with drought and fires hitting the area.

Pine Grove Fire

The rain that hit in August helped put out a major fire in The Little Rockies, but was to late to help with the developing drought conditiosn.

The Pine Grove Fire in The Little Rockies was declared 98 percent contained by Aug. 24, after rains arrived, but most of the state was in drought conditions and had been declared a disaster by that point.

The fire, which led to evacuations, had been turned over to a state incident command team, but was returned to control of local firefighters by Aug. 24.

By that time, the fire had burned 16,004 acres, forced the evacuation of Pine Grove and Zortman and led to evacuation warnings for other communities.

The fire started Aug. 16 three miles northeast of Hays from a structure and spread into the wildland. 

The InciWeb page said the fire is human-caused and the cause is under investigation.

By the morning of Aug. 17, wind pushed it to more than 10,000 acres and triggered mandatory evacuation notices for the communities of Pine Grove, Zortman and Starhill and Level 2 evacuation notices were put in effect for the communities of Hays and Lodge Pole.  

During this initial period, the fire destroyed one structure, where the fire started. Structure assessments are ongoing.

The fire moved through grass, timber and brush on the Fort Belknap Indian Reservation and Bureau of Land Management land.

Firefighters from Fort Belknap and other cooperating agencies performed initial attack on the fire, working hard to save structures and ensure people were safe. Primary spread was to the south-southwest toward the mines. 

The Fort Belknap Indian Community declared a state of emergency Aug. 18.

Due to the complexity of the incident, a Type 3 Incident Management Team took command of the fire Aug. 19.

The incident team was briefed to follow and implement the guidance outlined in the Fort Belknap Indian Community COVID-19 Reopening Plan. specifically, social distancing measures are encouraged and wearing of masks are required while indoors.

The team was briefed to place high priority on protecting communities, ranches, individual properties, cultural,  and natural resources.

Fort Belknap is accepted donations to support those impacted by the fire.

Other areas of the state said in a fire update call Aug. 24 that the shift in weather had helped with firefighting efforts, although fire restrictions were still in place.

Rains finally hitting

the state

Rains started falling in August, although initial rains the week the Pine Grove Fire started missed that region. Later showers did fall on the fire, helping with containment.

In the Havre area, by Aug. 25, 1.01 inches of rain had fallen at the reporting station at the Havre-City County Airport, putting that station at .28 inches above normal for the month.

But three-quarters of an inch of that rain fell in the previous two weeks.

The first week of August, Havre had 4.76 inches of rain for the calendar year, a little more than half the normal value of 8.23 inches.

The total for the calendar year by Aug. 25 was 5.77 inches, still well-short of the normal value of 8.93 inches.

And it was still far short of normal for the water year, which runs from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30. By Aug. 25, Havre reported 7.34 inches for the water year with the norm 10.57 inches.

Much of the water year precipitation for 2020-21 in this region came in three months between October and April.

Havre saw 8.9 inches of snow and .84 inches of precipitation in October 2020, with the norms 2 inches and .58 inches, respectively. In November 2020 it received another 10.1 inches of snow and .65 inches of precipitation, with norms of 5.3 inches for snow and .43 inches for precipitation.

Chinook saw 6.6 inches of snow and .92 inches of precipitation in October 2020, with norms of 1.1 inches of snow and .71 inches of precipitation, and 21 inches of snow and 1.42 inches of precipitation in November 2020, with norms of 5.5 inches of snow and .55 inches of precipitation.

The Weather Service chart reported Chester received no October 2020 snow - the norm was missing on the chart - but .96 inches of precipitation compared to a norm of .55 inches, and 22.3 inches of snow and 1.96 inches of precipitation in November 2020. Normal snowfall for that month was missing but the norm for precipitation was .38 inches.

Big Sandy saw 1.03 inches of October 2020 precipitation with a norm of .81 inches and .61 inches of precipitation with a norm of .51 inches in November. Snowfall was not listed on those tables.

Information was not available on Harlem for daily data by month in 2020, or for 2021.

But then things dried up and warmed up, with temperatures often in the 40s and 50s or warmer in December 2020 and Weather Service reporting Big Sandy received no precipitation at all, with a norm of .5 inches, and Chester seeing 1.6 inches of snow, norm not listed, and .16 inches of precipitation compared to a norm of .48 inches.

Havre received .7 inches of snow, norm 7.4 inches, and .08 inches of precipitation, norm .4 inches, in December 2020 while Chinook received 1 inch of snow, norm 5.8 inches, and .05 inches of precipitation, norm .48 inches.

That continued in January 2021. Most of the data for Big Sandy and Chester was missing, but Chinook is listed as having no precipitation, with norms of 6.4 inches for snow and .49 inches of precipitation, while Havre is listed as receiving traces of snow on a few days for no measurable accumulation and .02 inches of precipitation, compared to norms of 7.1 inches of snow and .33 inches of precipitation.

That all turned around in February 2021.

The Havre area is listed as having .81 inches of precipitation that month, with a norm of .28 inches, and 10.2 inches of snow, with the norm 5.8 inches.

Chinook was listed with less snow, 3.5 inches for the month compared to a norm of 6.2 inches, but had .54 inches of precipitation with a norm of .4 inches.

Data for Chester and Big Sandy in February was not available.

But the rest of the winter and spring, aside from a few heavy storms, remained dry.

By the end of June, Havre was short 2.5 inches for the water year, with 5.81 inches and a norm of 8.31 inches, and short almost as much for the calendar year, with 4.24 inches compared to a norm of 6.67 inches.