Still dry as summer turns to fall

As if it hasn't been dry enough, don't expect that to change any time soon, even now that the first day of fall approaches.

According to the National Weather Service Great Falls, Havre and the Hi-Line, as well as almost all of Montana will see yet another warmer-than-average and drier-than-average trend over the next two weeks.

"We are definitely seeing high confidence of it being warmer and drier over the next one to two weeks," Forecaster Christian Cassell said at the NWS Great Falls on Monday. "Farther out, about four to five weeks ahead, conditions also look favorable for above-average temperatures and near-normal precipitation."

And Havre sure could use some precipitation. As summer gives way to fall, Havre is listed as extreme for its official drought designation. Thus far in September, Havre has received just five one-hundredths of an inch, while normal for this time of year is .62 inches. And while August did see the arrival of some rain, and some cooler weather, it wasn't nearly enough. Havre did receive 1.04 inches of rain in August, which is slightly above normal, but that amount, combined with what's predicted to come, isn't enough to alter Havre's drought conditions.

"As of Sept. 16, Havre is still listed as extreme," Cassell said. "The drought scale has six levels with Exceptional being the worst. And Havre is right below that right now."

Things have been dry, and many forecast models don't show much relief in the near future.

Earlier in the summer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that La Niña conditions had a 50 percent or better chance of developing as early as late August and by September for sure. Those conditions would normally bring cooler, wetter weather to Montana, and much of the Pacific Northwest. However, long-range forecasts have become somewhat unstable. NOAA's three-month outlook has all of Montana seeing likely around-normal temperatures and normal precipitation, while The Weather Channel recently released its own fall outlook, with October at or near normal, and both November and December at above-normal temperatures and below-normal precip, which is the opposite of a La Niña pattern.

"Right now, we're not seeing anything that would indicate any extreme below-normal temperatures or above-average precipitation in the long-range," Cassell said. "This coming week, it's going to be warmer and drier, and after that, right now at least, it looks to be much more an equal chance, and nothing to drastic one way or another."

And as fall arrives, that forecast could spell more dry months for Havre, and all of Montana, for that matter.

As for this week, The Weather Channel is calling for temps to rise into the the 80s Wednesday, and again over the weekend with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will be in the low 70s Thursday and Friday with sunshine and wind also predicted. Next week, temperatures are also expected to be in the high to mid-70s with plenty of sunshine and no rain in the forecast.