Old Man Winter expected to settle in this year

Havre has seen record-tying warmth this week with more potentially to hit, but as October turned to November over the weekend, the metrological winter is now less than a month away, and the warm temperatures, they're not going to last.

Havre tied a record high set in 1903 Monday at 75 degrees, with near-record highs in the forecast for today and highs in the 60s through Thursday.

But that is expected to change over the weekend, and the long-range forecast is not expecting many record highs either.

All major forecasters - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, The Weather Channel and AccuWeather - have put out their winter forecasts for the United States, and the verdict is in. La Niña is back and for Havre, the Hi-Line and north-central Montana that means its likely to be a colder and wetter than average winter.

"We follow NOAA's forecast models," Bob Homenisch of the National Weather Service in Great Falls said. "So we're expecting an influence from the La Niña conditions that are happening in the Pacific Ocean right now. La Niña's tend to mean periods of colder than average temperatures and wetter than average periods for our area. How strong those periods will be and when are still uncertain right now, but we have pretty high confidence that we'll see those cold outbreaks and storm systems that typically come with La Niña patterns over the course of the winter."

La Niña has a strong influence on winter in Montana. La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, compared to El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The record-breaking winter of 2017-18 was a La Niña pattern, where the winter of 2018-19 was as well. The winter of 2019-2020 was considered a neutral winter, where Havre and north-central Montana saw mostly average to slightly above-average temperatures, and considerably below-average snowfall.

However, given what the forecasters are calling for this winter, people in the area should get those shovels and snow blowers ready for the long haul.

"La Niña isn't the only factor in how the winter plays out," Homenisch said. "But it certainly stacks the deck in favor of cooler- and wetter-than-average conditions in our area."

Indeed. NOAA is calling for just that over the next four months. In a recently released November outlook, NOAA had the Havre area as having a 50 percent or higher chance for below-normal temperatures and above-average precipitation.

November sees Havre usually average a high temperature of 42 degrees, with four days of precipitation.

As for the NOAA overall winter outlook, which is from Dec. 1 to March 1, NOAA is calling for the Havre area to have a better-than 40 percent chance of below-average temperatures and a 50 percent chance of above-average precipitation. NOAA has February as the possibly most difficult month, as it says a better-than 70 percent chance is predicted for both below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation.

And winter might not be waiting until December either.

The NWS in Great Falls is calling for a fairly significant change in the weather this weekend. With temperatures expected to reach into the upper 60s and lower 70s from today through Thursday, winter weather will come in right behind it.

"We have really high confidence in turning colder and wetter by the weekend," Homenisch said. "Friday looks to be that transition day. It looks like its going to be much colder with a pretty wet storm system coming in Saturday and into Sunday, with several inches of snow expected."

Currently, The Weather Channel has this weekend in Havre forecasted for a high of 47 degrees on Friday with rain turning to snow in the evening. Friday night calls for 1-3 inches of snow, while the high on Saturday is predicted to be 26 with a low of 13 Saturday night. 3-5 inches of snow is expected Saturday, while Sunday's high is forecast to be just 20 degrees with another inch of snow predicted, while the temperature is slated to fall to 6 degrees Sunday night.

The system comes on the heels of a major warmup after Havre received 6.6 inches of snow two weeks ago, and that system also ushered in a couple of record-breaking cold nights. That weather didn't stick around, but Homenisch said this system looks to be different.

"It's going to be a drastic change in the weather after temperatures that are in the 60s and low 70s," he said. "The cold and snow will arrive and looking to even the next six to 10 days after, we're not seeing any high pressure ridges that will warm things back up. So this snowfall could end up sticking around on the ground, especially in the Havre area."

That's right. It's only November, but, as is the case so many years in Havre, Old Man Winter is coming and, with the looks of the winter forecasts, he plans on sticking around for a while.