Weather forecast continues up-and-down cycle of temps, snow

This part of north-central Montana again saw some snow and cold in the last few days, although not nearly what was predicted in December to hit this region by this time of the year, and forecasts are for it to return to springlike conditions by the end of the week.

National Weather Service reports the recording station at the Havre City-County Airport saw a high of 38 degrees Monday, but the temperatures dropped to a cold 3 degrees this morning, following warm high temperatures since the beginning of the month, but with lows dropping into the teens and single digits through most of the month.

Havre saw a bit of measurable snow fall overnight, with some remnants of earlier snowstorms still on the ground.

But the chance of snow and bitterly cold temperatures isn't high this week.

The Weather Service forecast has no snow predictions through Saturday, although Sunday night lists a slight chance of rain and snow and Monday has a chance of snow.

But the temperatures are predicted to remain unseasonably high, with predicted highs getting into the 40s Thursday through Sunday - Sunday's forecast for Havre lists a high of 49. Lows are predicted in the 20s to low 30s.

That is not what meteorologists said in December they were expecting. Predictions were that this part of Montana could have a February comparable to last year's, the second-coldest February on record for the region.

And the region saw extremes leading up to that prediction.

Following last year's near-record February and wintry storms in early March, weather averages were closer to normal through the spring, but were followed by a cool, slightly wet summer. The temperatures averaged almost 2 degrees below normal for Havre, with precipitation slightly above normal.

Then a wild fall set in. In a similar, though slightly less-extreme repeat of October 2018, a heavy snowstorm hit north-central Montana in late September, with the month seeing a new record for snowfall, 10.5 inches. That broke the record set in 1934, 8.7 inches.

Havre received near-normal snowfall in November, but December saw snowfall totals near another record. with 25.8 inches falling and the 1958 record 26.4 inches.

Temperatures also were chilly, although September just missed being one degree colder than normal. But October was 7.3 degrees colder than normal and November was 4.4 degrees colder.

December warmed up, comparatively, and saw less snow. The highs generally ranged rom the 20s - with the coldest day Dec. 14 at 16 degrees for a high - into the 50s, with Dec. 21, the first day of winter, seeing a high of 59 degrees.

Havre saw less-than-normal snow in December as well, receiving 7 inches with the norm 7.4 inches.

Then January saw the temperatures see-saw, with periods of highs at below-zero and the coldest low for the month minus 28 Jan. 15, and other periods with highs again in the 30s, 40s and 50s.

The snow was light in January, with Havre receiving 3.2 inches compared to a normal value of 7.1 inches.

Havre started this month with a high of 62 degrees, with highs through the rest of the month so far mostly in the 30s and 40s. Snow is behind the norm so far, with 2.9 inches recorded in Havre with the norm for the month 3.4 inches.

That is not what meteorologists predicted for the long-range forecast through January and February.

The December prediction was for the Havre area and much of the state to have a 70 percent chance to see below-normal temperatures in January and through February, with conditions then trending for the nation to see a February much like it saw in 2019.

That year saw a mild January then, just a few days into February, a winter blast hit.

The month ended up being historically cold, with National Weather Service reporting Havre recording the second-coldest February on record.

The monthly average temperature - that averages the high and low each day - ended up at minus 5.9 degrees Fahrenheit for Havre in February 2019, edging out the previous second-coldest of minus 4.9 degrees set in 1887.

The fourth-coldest February was in 1891, with the average minus 0.2 degrees.

But none of those come close to the record, set in 1936. That year, Havre had an average at minus 12.8 degrees.

In the leap-year of 1936, the low in Havre was above zero one day, Feb. 29, with a low temperature of 9 degrees. That day saw a high of 44 degrees, one of nine days with a high above zero in February 1936. Only two of these days - the 29th and the high of 40 on Feb. 27 - were above freezing.

From Feb. 4, 1936, to Feb. 20, 1936, the high never rose above zero - the warmest day was Feb 19, 1936, when the high hit zero. The lows were all below minus 20 degrees, with the lows on multiple days colder than minus 30. The low on Feb. 15, 1936, was minus 46, and the coldest day, Feb. 16, 1936, was minus 47.

And that winter was cold throughout the region. The coldest Februaries - all in 1936 - were minus 14.3 in Chinook, minus 13.6 in Harlem, Chester and Big Sandy both had minus 9.5.

Chinook's coldest day that month was minus 51 on Feb. 14, 1936, and the lows never rose above minus 20 from Feb. 1, 1936, to Feb. 20, 1936. Those lows included minus 50 on Feb. 15, 1936, and three lows colder than minus 40 and six colder than minus 30.

And the snow fell as well in February 2019. Havre didn't break the record for snowfall for February, set in 2018 at 31.8 inches, but came close to getting second in that category, as well.

National Weather Service reports the Havre recording station, at the Havre City-County Airport west of town, showed 17.5 inches of snow falling there in February.

In 1978, the winter snowfall in Havre, for February was 18.6 inches and it was 18 inches in 1994.

But the cold February and wintry early March paled compared to this region's winter in 2018, named by Weather Channel as the worst winter in the nation that year.

A dry spring and summer that led to massive fires in the area was followed by a long, cold, snowy winter.

It started with an October snowstorm that broke trees, blanketed roads and shut down power from Chester to Malta, for more than a week for some people. The snow also helped finish putting out the massive East Fork Fire in the Bear Paw Mountains.

The region settled in about Christmas time to a winter the likes of which had not been seen in years. While Havre just missed setting a new record for total snowfall for the winter - less than an inch short of the 93.4 inches that fell in 1981 - it set many other records.

While the forecast for the week belies this prediction, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's long-range forecast, for February, March and April, made in January still predicts a higher-than-normal chance for colder-than-normal temperatures and higher-than-normal chance of precipitation.