Governor declares state of emergency in area

Gov. Steve Bullock declared a state of emergency due to flooding including for Chester, Blaine, Hill and Liberty counties and the Fort Belknap Indian Reservation, within days of Hill and Blaine counties declaring their emergencies and the city of Harlem temporarily ordering an evacuation of residences north of the railroad tracks.

The evacuation order has since been lifted, and Blaine and Hill counties both reported this morning that tributaries to the Milk River seem to have dropped some, although Blaine County reports the river, closing in on record flood levels near Harlem, continues to rise.

Hill County reported this morning that Big Sandy Creek had risen some over the night, but appeared to have dropped in level as of this morning.

Hill County declared an emergency Tuesday and Blaine County did the same Wednesday.

Snowmelt on near-record snow accumulations has inundated the area, overrunning roads and highways and flooding fields.

Bullock issued the emergency declaration Wednesday, which also includes Pondera, Valley, Toole and Petroleum counties,

The declaration authorizes the availability and utilization of necessary state government services, equipment and supplies. It also allows the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to utilize sandbags and other resources available for critical infrastructure protection.

"As Montanans are faced with flooding, we are doing everything necessary at the state level to protect health and safety, and to preserve lives, property, and resources," Bullock said in a press release. "We continue to keep in close communication with local and tribal officials as we monitor conditions around the state."

Hill County Commission Chair Mark Peterson said early Wednesday morning that the county also is seeking a presidential disaster declaration, which provides access to federal aid, as occurred in this area in 2010, 2011 and 2013.

National Weather Service officials met with local officials in a meeting in Hill County and another in Blaine County Wednesday.

Fresno Reservoir has filled over the conservation pool with water going over the spillway in addition to releases from the reservoir, Weather Service hydrologist Arin Peters said during the Havre meeting.

"We are hoping that the inflows to the reservoir will taper off in the next day or so and the uncontrolled releases won't be too extreme," he said.

But he added that if inflows are higher than expected the amount of water flowing into the Milk River will increase.

Daily data listed online by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation that operates Fresno says the inflow hit 6,599.21 cubic-feet-per-second Tuesday but had dropped to 5,646.84 today.

The Milk River had gone from about 12 feet Wednesday morning to 14.14 feet today, but is expected to start dropping.

"It will probably go back up and down again by the middle of next week. That is assuming we don't get any rain on top of that," Peters said.

Big Sandy Creek, Peters said, has crested at 14.63 feet, falling just short of the record of 15.1 feet.

He said that there is little information about Big Sandy Creek upstream.

Peters said that Peterson had flown over the affected area in western Hill County and that Peterson told him he thinks there might be more water in Sage Creek than originally thought. Peters said that it can be difficult to tell because there is only one gauge at that creek and so quantitative information is lacking,

"I guess all I can say is they are doing the best they can forecasting with that  gauge, he said. "It's really difficult because there is one gauge and all these small tributaries flowing into Sage Creek, stock ponds and coolies and we have no idea what they are draining."

The Milk River Basin remains at 150 plus percent of average for snow, and has not started to melt out in the upper reaches of the Milk River and St. Mary River Basin.

"I think this is kind of the lowland melt we are seeing right now and the runoff from that and the plains. We might still see that for a few days, but I think this is kind of going to taper off in the next weak or so."

More flooding could take place once the snow starts to melt off the mountains when temperatures rise into the 50s and 60s down in the lower elevations, he said.

If the snow melts gradually, the Milk River can likely hold the water and additional significant flooding might not occur, Peters said, but the unknown is how fast the snow melts off.

"If we get 75 degrees that is going to increase the rate at which the snow melts and then the river will rise higher quicker," he said.

Rainfall will be another factor as to whether or not there is additional major flooding.

"We are getting into the wet season for this part of the state. May and June is when we typically see the highest rainfall totals in Montana, at least eastern Montana," Peters said.

Any type of heavy rain on top of already swollen streams from the snow melt will exacerbate any kind of flooding.

Peters said that in 2011, when flood waters struck the area and led to a presidential disaster declaration, it was rain on top of snow that caused rivers and streams already overflow.

He added that in terms of quantity, the mountains now have 10 to 20 percent more snow than in 2011.

Peterson said the southwest corner of Hill County  is 90 percent white.

"It hasn't even started to melt yet," he said.

When it does melt, most of that snow will spill into the Marias drainage, he said. Areas to the north and west of Rudyard are still white.

He said the situation changes rapidly.

"Water does weird things and we just need to honor its power," he said. "We've got conditions that are going to be with us for awhile."

After the flooding has subsided the county might be able to fix some of the roads by running a blade over them, but others so washed out that they will not be open for a month or two because conditions are too wet and they don't have the material to fill some of the holes, Peterson said.

He added that the public needs to be patient with the city and county as they try to get work done.

Budgets have also been impacted by this spring and winter, Peterson said.

"Funding is not going to be an easy thing," he said.