Setting winter records - and it's not over yet

Don’t put your shovels away yet, or at least keep them close by.

That was the warning from Jim Brusda, chief meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Great Falls Thursday.

Brusda was referring to the fact that indications are winter weather is far from over in Havre.

And there’s quite a few reasons why — but the biggest is snow.

“The snow pack,” Brusda said of why Havre is experiencing well below normal temperatures deep into March, and more colder temps are being forecast for the beginning of April. “The snow pack right now in Havre is deep. And that’s going to bring the temperature down, even now that spring has officially started.”

The snow pack in Havre isn’t just deep, it’s record-setting.

Brusda said that one of the many records Havre has shattered during the 2017-18 winter is the length of time that more than 20 inches of snow has sat on the ground. As of Wednesday, Havre was on its 35th straight day where 20-plus inches of snow has sat on the ground. The previous record dates all the way back to 1916, and that was just 15 days straight of 20-plus inches of snow resting on Havre’s surface.

The city has smashed many records this winter, including the coldest average daily temperature on record for a seven-week span. Starting Feb. and through Wednesday, Havre has averaged a high daily temperature of a whopping eight degrees, which, is the coldest in modern times, and it makes it the fourth-coldest winter of all-time in Havre. The previous three coldest winters on record, however, were established in 1899, 1891 and 1957.

“This has been a rough one for Havre,” Brusda said. “Havre hasn’t seen a winter like this in a long, long time. That seven-week stretch, that’s a really long time for it to stay that cold, and it’s quite unusual.”

And the records, and temperatures continue to fall, even with April and Easter right around the corner.

Now 23 days into March, Havre is averaging a full 13 degrees below normal for its daily high temperature for the month. Thursday’s high reached 37 degrees at the Havre City-County Airport, while the average high for March 22 in Havre was listed at 48 degrees. The high for today is predicted to reach 37 again, while the norm is listed at 49.

Conversely, Brusda said, now that Great Falls has “officially melted,” the Electric City is experiencing only a 1.4 degree below-average daily high for March. Even on the colder side, Great Falls still reached 48 degrees Thursday.

“Brown ground makes a huge difference,” Brusda said. “If Havre had brown ground right now, the temperature would be at least 5.5 degrees warmer, automatically. So that snow pack, and the cooling at night is really hurting Havre’s ability to warm up.”

Unfortunately, the cycle Havre is in will have a hard time being broken anytime soon.

One record Havre keeps going back and forth on is the total snowfall record since July 1, but the city is getting closer to it again. While earlier this year Havre had received more snow to date than any other year, as of today, it is still off the season record due to more snowfall in other years adding to the total.

The region has set many records on individual days for record snowfall in one day, starting with the Oct. 2-3 blizzard.

Many residents have talked about the winters of 1978 and 1977, but, as of today, Havre has far eclipsed both the cold and snowfall records of those years. Now 1981 remains the only year on record that saw more snowfall than 2018 has. At this date in that year, 93.4 inches fell on Havre, while so far this season, Havre has received 82.6. In third place with 78.6 inches is 1978 and 1977 is now fourth with 75.3.

And while this winter stands in second place to date, the race for the record books is not over.

“Havre could still eclipse that total, unfortunately,” Brusda said. “Havre is not seeing very warm temperatures right now, and there’s nothing to indicate that anything prolonged is coming. I see a couple of days next week where Havre could get near 50 degrees, but overall, the indications are, that the cold and snow looks to continue on and off for a while yet.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently released its next three-month outlook for the United States, and for Havre, and much of the Hi-Line, the outlook called for well-below average temperatures and normal to above-average precipitation through the end of June. NOAA said that while a strong La Niña is finally weakening, it’s by no means over and will continue to affect the weather in the northern tier of the U.S.

As for the near future, the Weather Service in Great Falls is showing a mixed bag of weather for Havre over the next 10 days. This weekend is calling for highs in the low to mid 30s with slight chances of snowfall both Saturday and Sunday night. Monday through Thursday shows highs near 40 with sunshine, but also snow showers possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.

“Nothing is indicating that spring is truly on its way yet in Havre,” Brusda said. “Don’t put your shovels away yet, or at least keep them close by.”