Havre and why it's so cold

The cold weather that has gripped Havre so far in January can seem maddening to many.

But it might be even more maddening when Havreites dare look at their weather app, or the Weather Channel and they find out that in places like Great Falls, the temperature is some 50 degrees warmer. Or in extreme cases, it's so much warmer a mere 10 to 20 miles away.

That was certainly the case Tuesday, according to Jim Brusda of National Weather Service in Great Falls. At 2 p.m. Havre was reading a balmy minus 9 degrees, while just a few miles away Rocky Boy was reporting 40 degrees above zero, and another monitoring station in the Bear Paw Mountains was reporting a scorching 51 degrees above.

"Havre is unique," Brusda said. "It sits in the Milk River valley, and at an elevation that's a full 1,000 feet lower than areas further west like the I-15 corridor between Cut Bank and Great Falls. So when these cold air masses come in from the north, and they have a lot of depth to them, when you get into areas that are higher in elevation, it doesn't take as much to mix the cold air out. For example, Great Falls sits at an elevation of 3,600 feet, so if the cold air mass is 2,500 feet in depth, you only need to mix out 900 feet of the cold air. In Havre, you're talking about having to mix out almost 2,000 feet of cold air."

And elevation isn't the only reason Havre stays on the cold side much longer than its neighbors to the south and to the west. Wind is another major factor.

While Havre is commonly considered one of the windier cities in the already windy state of Montana, so far in January, the wind isn't blowing. The average wind speed for Havre for a given year is 9 miles per hour, and the average wind speed for January is slightly above that at 9.4. So far this January, Havre is averaging a daily wind speed of just 3.6 mph, and on Tuesday, when it was minus 9, the winds were blowing at just over 1 mph.

"When you have what Havre is experiencing with this cold air mass, and the wind is calm like it's been, it's not helping things move along at all," Brusda said. "Even if the winds are blowing from the west, if it's only blowing 6 miles per hour, that's just not strong enough, so the temperatures are very slow to warm up."

Slow is an understatement. While many folks in Havre are used to the cold each year, the town is currently going through an unusual bout of extreme cold. It may be something that Havre gets used to, but it doesn't mean it's normal.

Through Monday, Havre is averaging 10.9 degrees below normal. Eleven out of the 16 days this month have seen a low temperature of zero or colder, and Havre has already experienced three days of a low temperature of minus 30 or colder. Sunday's low hit minus 30, while the record low for that day was minus 43. Monday's low again hit minus 30 with the record set in 1982 at minus 34.

"Havre is on the very cold side for the month right now," Brusda said. "I would say an average of 4 to 5 degrees below normal is cold, and Havre is doubling that right now."

Snow is another issue. The snow on the ground helps lock the cold air into the valley as well. Brusda said Havre has received 7 inches of fresh snow in January, which is 3 inches more than normal. So while not significantly above average, there's still enough snow on the ground to help attract and keep cold air around longer.

And how long the cold air stays is becoming the issue. While cold snaps aren't new to the Havre area, this particular cold spell is certainly on the extreme side, especially when you consider just how close the warmer air is to the city.

"Rocky Boy sits at an elevation of 3,800 feet, which is 1,200 feet higher than Havre," Brusda said. "So the higher you go the warmer the air is going to be. The same can be said the farther west you go. Just down Highway 2, the temperatures are warming up significantly, so, the good news is, the warmer air is close, its right there. The bad news is, it's taking forever to get to Havre."

Looking ahead, it seems the only thing that will get it to hit Havre is the word most residents hate - wind. Today, the NWS is predicting a southwest wind of 16 mph with gusts up to 24, with winds rising even stronger tonight. Thursday, the forecast high is 40 degrees with winds blowing 13 mph with gusts as high as 31. Temperatures are projected to be in the low 30s and high 20s through the weekend, and in the mid to low 20s early next week, which, would be a return to more normal January conditions.

But with what Havre has gone through since January began, it's almost a "we'll believe it when we feel it" mentality at this point.

And Brusda understands.

"It has been unusually cold in Havre so far," he said. "To have that many days already of a low temperature of 30 below or colder, and to only have five days out of 16 where the low was zero or warmer, that's very cold. So it's fair to say, it's been on the extreme side, and quite a bit below normal so far for the Havre area."

Extreme seems about right. And, when you factor in how close the warmer air is, how much warmer so many of our neighbors are, it's not just extreme, it's downright frustrating.