Weather, prices upside down in north-central Montana

A topsy-turvy weather year that looked bleak early on received enough moisture in the north-central Montana region including Blaine, Chouteau, Hill and Liberty counties to produce some good harvests, although a decline in prices at the same time has kept farmers and ranchers from gaining much through that harvest.

The forecast for the next few months calls for more precipitation — along with some colder weather — but what will happen with prices is unknown.

Early dry weather reverses

The moisture over the last half-year is a reversal of the conditions early on, which looked like north-central Montana could be slipping back into drought conditions like it experienced early last decade. What had started as a very bleak-looking year for moisture turned into a deluge of precipitation, at least in this part of north-central Montana.

That helped with yields for many farmers and better-than-expected hay crops, although the late heavy rains also kept some farmers out of fields after harvest, delaying or preventing planting fall crops.

Now the soil moisture content is much better than conditions in March would have led people to expect.

While the northern part of the Rocky Mountain Front into Teton County did not receive as much of the later moisture, the water level rose significantly to the east — to the point of flooding in early October on the Milk River and its tributaries from Malta down the river.

After the region started falling into a moisture deficit early in the year by the end of January, National Weather Service reported that its station at the Havre City-County Airport received .31 inches of precipitation, just shy of the norm of .34 inches.

The deficit continued to grow in the region. By the end of February, the Havre station reported receiving .41 inches of precipitation compared to a norm of .61 inches, and by the end of March, the deficit had grown to nearly a third of an inch, with .85 inches received compared to a norm of 1.13 inches.

But precipitation started falling in April with a vengeance. More than 3.5 inches fell that month, and by the end of the month the Havre station reported 4.41 inches of precipitation having fallen compared to a norm of 1.91 inches for that date.

Moisture continues to fall, more expected

And the precipitation has continued to fall. National Weather Service reported that through Oct. 24, its station at the Havre City-County Airport received 18.11 inches of precipitation, compared to a norm of 10.26 inches by that day.

That compares to a norm of about 12.2 inches for the entire year.

And more precipitation is expected before the year’s end.

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, of which National Weather Service is a branch, predicts a cooler- and wetter-than-average winter for Montana in its forecast for December through February.

NOAA in mid-October issued a La Niña watch, predicting cooler temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean bringing wetter, cooler conditions in the northern United States and warmer, drier conditions in the southern part of the country.

While that pattern, if it materializes, could prolong droughts in parts of the country including much of the Southwest and California, it could lead to improvements in drought conditions in northern California and the Northern Rockies and extending east to parts of the Ohio Valley.

The upshot of the forecast is that Montana is expected to have up to a 40 percent chance from December through February of cooler temperatures and a 40 percent chance of wetter weather.

The actual day-to-day weather will vary with what storm systems hit the state — some days still could see warmer temperatures and periods of low precipitation still could occur, but above-average precip and colder-than-average temperatures are likely.

The latest Montana water supply and moisture status map, created Oct. 17 for the month of September, shows dry conditions including some counties being in drought alert in the western part of the state, extending to Glacier and Toole counties on the north, and along the southern part of the state.

Chouteau, Hill and Liberty counties are listed as near average for moisture, while parts of central and northeastern Montana, from Judith Basin through Fergus and Blaine counties east to the North Dakota border, are listed as slightly moist.

Drought monitoring conditions in Montana have continued to improve, with U.S. Drought Monitor maps showing increasingly dry and drought conditions spreading through the western and southern parts of the state through mid-September, with conditions improving after that. The monitor’s latest map shows the worst spot for dry conditions in the very southeast corner of the state, with a dry patch in the central southern edge of the state, from Beaverhead to Carbon counties and a dry patch centered on Powell county.

Prices on the downside

While the weather helped some producers get good crops, the markets have not been cooperating.

Wheat prices skyrocketed late last decade, going from about $2 to $3 a bushel to record prices, with some farmers receiving more than $15 a bushel for hard red spring wheat in 2008 and some buyers paying nearly $12 a bushel for hard red winter wheat.

The higher prices leveled off but some producers still were earning about $7.50 to $10 a bushel for winter wheat through 2013 and up to $13 a bushel for hard red spring wheat.

Prices started dropping regularly after that and have declined severely in the last couple of years.

In late October, Montana farmers were looking at prices generally in the upper $2 to $3 a bushel range, with some of the top prices for 15 percent protein red spring wheat at a little more than $5 a bushel.

Cattle prices also went up, peaked early last year and again are on the downside. After spending decades where ranchers could rarely receive more than $1 a pound for feeder cattle — usually much less than that — prices started going up about the start of this decade. Producers recently were making $2.50 a pound or more for their cattle, but now the prices again have dropped.

Recent Montana prices for cattle ranged, in a late October market report from the Montana Livestock Auction website, from $1.06 to $1.14 a pound for yearling steers and $.85 to $1.12 a pound for yearling heifers. The report lists steer calves selling for $1.06 to $1.47 a pound and heifer calves for $.99 to $1.23 a pound. At the same time, some live cattle futures have dropped below $1 pound.

A variety of causes are listed as to the price declines, including oversupply of product and the strong U.S. dollar cutting into imports, as well as competition from other countries.