Forecast calls for more-normal, colder and snowier winter

It's official now. Fall has come to the Hi-Line - at least the calendar says so, anyway.

And, around these parts, when fall officially arrives, folks usually start wondering about what kind of winter Havre can expect.

With the start of winter now just two months away, and the El Niño pattern that had much of the United States in a warm grip the last two years now over, many weather officials are pointing toward, at the very least, a return to a kind of winter that north-central Montanan's would consider normal.

"The way the patterns are looking right now, for the three-month periods through early spring, it looks like things could be at least neutral, or a weak La Niña," meteorologist Scott Coulston of the National Weather Service in Great Falls said. "What that means is, there is a slightly better-than-average chance of below-average temperatures, and a slightly better-than-average chance of above-average precipitation through early spring."

And that would mean the return of more snow, and more cold days to Havre and surrounding areas from December through March of 2017.

La Niña patterns, which are brought on by cooler surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, tend to make the Pacific Northwest, including most of Montana, wet and about average or slightly below average for temperatures, especially during the winter months. Conversely, the southern tier of the United States would see a much warmer, and dry, winter season.

While the current La Nina, if it even arrives, is predicted to be weak and not nearly as strong as the moderate La Niña the area felt in 2010-11, the pattern would still buck the trend of the last two years, where Havre and the Hi-Line saw a strong El Niño not only make summer last well into October, where temperatures in that month were three degrees above average last year, but also made January, February and March of 2016 feel downright balmy.

The last truly strong La Nina, according to records kept by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration was in 1988-1989. Typically, La Nina patterns last for two years. The last truly strong La Niña, according to records kept by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, was in 1988-1989. Typically, La Niña patterns last for two years.

So, if weather predictions are accurate - one like the Weather Channel's prediction that the Pacific Northwest, including Montana, is set to see slightly below-average temperatures and slightly above-average precipitation through the winter months, or the New Farmer's Almanac's, which calls for Montana to see "Brutal Cold" from January through March - then Havre is set to see a winter much more normal for these parts.

"As you go through the winter, it looks like there's a chance that we'll see cooler-than-normal temperatures," Coulston said. "I think if that pattern holds, you'll see cooler temperatures as the winter months go on."

Of course, fall comes before winter, and back in August, NOAA had predicted that Montana, and especially north-central Montana, could expect below-average temperatures from August through October. August temps were indeed below average for the month, but that pattern has seemed to taper off some now.

"Right now, from October to December, it looks like there's a chance that temperatures could be slightly above normal," Coulston said, "while there's a better-than-average chance that precipitation could be slightly above normal for that same period."

Precipitation is something Havre and surrounding areas may have been worried about when Old Man Winter never really showed his face back in January and February, but the area doesn't need to worry so much now.

For the year-to-date, Havre has received 14.5 inches of precipitation, which is nearly five inches above normal. And with plenty of rain in the forecast for this week, an 80 percent chance today, a 90 percent chance Friday and a 60 percent chance Saturday, and with predictions somewhere in the range of two inches during that stretch, Havre has certainly had a wet last few months.

"Five inches above normal to this point," Coulston said. "That's a pretty good amount of precipitation for the area."

It looks to continue, too. With early forecasts predicting, at the very least, a wet fall, and, for now, at least an average winter, Havre and the surrounding areas are not only looking at plenty of precipitation in the coming months, but also a return to the type of winter most residents are used to, but may have forgotten about over the last two years.

And if things progress as predicted, winter coats and snow shovels will be making a comeback in Havre and on the Hi-Line.