Hi-Line Farm & Ranch March 2016

For most people, unseasonably warm weather in the winter is a cause for rejoice, not unease.

But in a state where agriculture is a significant portion of the state's economy, unusual swings in temperature can mean the difference between financial feast and famine.

This winter, from December to mid-February has seen unusually high temperatures.

Figures provided by National Weather Service show that in the first half of February, the average temperature was 13.7 degrees above normal for that month. Average temperatures were 3.4 degrees higher than usual in January and 1.7 degrees higher in December.

"Warm this time of year is definitely not good," said Peggy Lamb, the agronomy research scientist at Montana State University's Northern Agricultural Research Center.

"Warmer this time of year is definitely bad for us," Lamb said.

Winter wheat crop can endure a five- to seven-day stretch of such temperatures. :amb said, adding that the area commonly sees warm spells in late February and March, but this year the warmth came earlier.

Havre has also seen above average precipitation so far, but half of that was from October. In January, the amount of precipitation was 0.3 inches above normal, but more than halfway through February, the area has had only .03 inches of precipitation, compared to the average of .27 inches during that same month.

These conditions can adversely affect the health of the wheat along the Hi-Line.

Les Rispens, executive director of Hill County Farm Service Agency in Havre said that on average 5 or 10 percent of a wheat crop dies off in a given winter. However, when weather is extremely warm or cold, that percentage can rise.

"We're in a pattern that could result in a lot of winter kill," Rispens said.

One potential problem in this warm weather is if a sudden cold snap occurs.

Winter wheat crops rely on having several inches of snow cover, but given the high temperatures, most of the precipitation has melted into the furrows of the soil. Rispens said that if the temperatures then plumet, that water in the furrows can turn to ice, choking off the young wheat from getting the oxygen essential to its growth or outright killing the plant.

Rispens said such a situation happened about three years ago, costing area farmers about 25 percent of their wheat crop that year.

Warm weather causes more problems than wheat to break dormancy. It also makes the crop vulnerable to such pests as downy brome, or cheatgrass, the weed can endure cold temperatures and thrives in warm temperatures.

Lamb said the weed is already starting to grow in fields and rangelands, taking away nutrients from the wheat and other crops.

Farmers, who usually end up spraying to kill the weed early on just before they seed in the fall and before the spring growing season begins, may have problems this year.

February is still too early to start spraying and too early to know what the winter kill percentage is or effects from downy brome growth, Rispens said.

Some winter wheat and other crops, are more diversified, more genetically predisposed to withstand the negative effects of unseasonably warm weather, he added.

Lamb said that because of the dry weather, and the dearth of precipitation, farmers may be forced to start making their best educated guesses about what their crop yield will likely be.

In the end, however, once the winter wheat is planted, its fate is largely out of the hands of the farmer.

"The crop is completely at the mercy of its genetics and our weather," Rispens said.

Looking ahead to the coming growing season, Jim Greytak, a wheat farmer from Hingham, said he will likely be seeding spring wheat as he does every year, but that doesn't mean he is doing so without worry.

"Lack of water, I think, will be a concern," he said. "If we continue on this pattern right now going into April, it could be a tough year."

In the first two months of 2016, the amount of precipitation in Havre has slipped. Over half of the precipitation going into this growing season came in October according to the National Weather Service. Since the beginning of 2016, those levels have fallen to 0.3 inches below normal or more in some areas during the first half of February.

This has an affect on snow pack, which Rispens said is now 25 percent below normal, which has longer-term ramifications for rivers, reservoirs and other bodies of water that farmers depend on for irrigated crops.

Though most rain usually comes around in spring, Rispens said, because of the diminished snowpack and lower precip numbers already, any moisture will be crucial for growing crops in north-central Montana's arid climate, Rispens said.

But just because there is a shortage of snowfall or rain in one area of the state or even some areas along the Hi-Line, doesn't mean that pattern is consistent everywhere.

Charles "Bud" Peterson, a farmer and rancher about 35 miles North of Havre and 4 miles from the U.S.-Canadian border, said it hadn't been all that warm for him most of the winter. In mid-February he said that the last traces of snow in that area had melted away only two weeks earlier.

Where he farms and ranches, Peterson said, it is usually about 10 degrees warmer or 10 degrees colder than it is down in the communities such as Havre to the south.

He said that while the dry weather could portend a mean season for farmers and ranchers, weather can change things quickly.

Ranchers face their own challenges with the weather.

Rispens said in an average year, a farmer sets aside half the grass that grows in a give season to keep the pasture healthy.

Last year, Rispens said, drought in northwestern Hill County prevented ranchers from setting aside that entire 50 percent. This depleted any reserve for 2016.

The warm weather is not all bad, though.

Bob Kaul of Havre, a retired farmer and rancher, who still helps his sons out with farming and ranching north of Havre, said that while a thaw sometime in January is to be expected, the lengthy warm spell during the first two months of 2016 is "unreal."

While Kaul, like many, is baffled by the weather, he said the warmth is actually good for the calves.

He said in cold and wet weather calves become more susceptible to conditions such as hypothermia, scours and pneumonia.

Come March or April, Kaul said he expects that conditions will become more wet just south of the border with Canada.

He said there has been fog up in that area and he posits that anytime there is fog if you look ahead 90 days and the chances are there will be some kind of moisture. Kaul refers to this as the "old timers way of predicting the weather."

Bottom line, everything in terms of farming and ranching is reliant on moisture.

"Everything in this part of the country depends on moisture and growth," Kaul said.

At the end of the day though weather is not something that can be controlled.

"It's very frustrating and stressful but there is nothing you can do about the warm dry weather we are having right now," Lamb said.

However, with February nearing its end, it is still too soon to know what exactly how the season will pan out in terms precipitation.

"I am hopeful we have a normal spring rain, and this does not mean a thing," Rispens said.