Economist Barkey: State has recovered from recession

One thing has been missed in the discussions about Montana's economy that abound this time of the year: The state is at full employment.

Those are the thoughts of Patrick Barkey, the director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana. He was the keynote speaker at the annual luncheon meeting of Bear Paw Development Corp. at the Boys & Girls Club of the Hi-Line Thursday.

The state has shown a recovery from the recession, he said.

The recovery has been highlighted by an increase in consumer spending, he said. More people are buying cars, homes and other consumer items.

In recent months, he said, the business sector has pulled back a bit, but government is increasing jobs after several years of retrenchment.

While the state's economy is doing well, there are two sectors that are lagging, and they will have an impact on the Hi-Line.

Because of a decrease in business at the Bakken, he said, the energy sector of the economy is not doing as well, and because less oil is being hauled by rail, the railroad industry, which accounts for 27 percent of Havre's economy, is falling behind.

Wages and salaries are going up around the state, he said, rebounding from the recession.

The state did pretty well compared to the country as a whole during the recession he said. And Hill County weathered the economic downturn quite well. But the tables are a little bit turned now.

For years during the recession, the wage growth in Hill County was higher than in Montana. That is reversed now, he said. Salaries have increased statewide, while in Hill County they have remained fairly flat in the last three years.

Barkey said his job involves telling people the story of their own communities, and he said he feels strange.

"I leave Missoula, drive five hours across the state, sometimes I have to use GPS to find some town," he said. "And then I tell people about the town they live in."

But he has the advantage, he said, of "telling the story from 3,000 miles up," looking down on the community. That way, he said, he might see things people will miss at the ground level.

He said his discussion Thursday was a sneak peak at the talk he will give to the Invest in Success Small Business program, March 15 and 16 that Bear Paw is sponsoring at Montana State University-Northern.