Summit: Montana economic future looks bright

Experts at an economic seminar in Havre Wednesday had a consistent theme — most parts of the Montana economy are expected to grow, or at least remain stable, in 2014.

Patrick Barkey, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Statistics at University of Montana, said the national economy is expected to improve more this year than last, with “more cylinders firing.”

Barkey added, “We expect Montana to outperform the national economy. … In terms of where we are, where we are going, we are optimistic.”

A group of experts discussed the future of the economy in Havre Wednesday at the bureau’s 39th Annual Economic Outlook Seminar, the last of nine stops in the seminar’s tour.

Paul Polzin, director emeritus of the bureau, said rural Montana has led the state from the recession from 2007-2009 on in growth. Hill County, he said, is expected to continue to grow nonfarm income at about 1.7 percent, slightly less than the prediction for the state as a whole, he said.

Hill County saw little negative impact from the recession, he said.

Polzin also said oil production in the Bakken formation in eastern Montana and western North Dakota is expected to continue, especially with revisions in the estimates in the amount of oil available jumping from some 3 billion barrels to more than 7 billion barrels that could be extracted from that region.

But, he said, the jobs are becoming more specialized. The chance of earning $100,000 a year driving a truck with just a high school education are getting slimmer, he said.

When asked why so much more oil is being produced in North Dakota than eastern Montana, Polzin said the reason is geological.

“The short answer is, they’ve got more oil out there, and its easier to get out,” he said. “It’s not because of taxes or regulation.”

George Haynes of the Montana State University Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics said agriculture is likely to stay strong as well, although prices for wheat are not expected to be as high as in recent years.

But more recent futures show wheat is likely to be at $7 a bushel or a little more by harvest, slightly higher than a few weeks ago.

Cattle prices are expected to be higher than he has ever seen, Haynes said, with calves likely to sell at $2 a pound or more.

“I’ve never had two-dollar prices on one of these charts before,” he said.

Norma Nickerson said tourism also is expected to rebound strongly from a slump during the recession.

That includes Canadian travels, she said — Alberta provided more tourists to Montana than any other location, including a large share of the $31 million brought to north-central Montana.