Hours from voting, Iowa still unpredictable

DES MOINES, Iowa — In the kickoff contest of the 2012 presidential race, Republican candidates argued right up to Tuesday's finish line in Iowa over which candidate the voters can trust and who they can count on to defeat President Barack Obama.

With large numbers of likely caucus goers still undecided or willing to change their minds as the Iowa race wound down, a confident-but-cautious frontrunner, Mitt Romney, said in an interview broadcast Tuesday on NBC that he's poised to claim "the kind of send-off we need for a pretty long campaign season." Backing off earlier declarations he'd win outright, he told MSNBC he expected to be "among the top group."

Volunteers Jason Bassett, of Des Moines, Iowa, left, and Mark Hancock, of Windsor Locks, Conn., right, work at Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's campaign headquarters, Friday in Des Moines, Iowa. The Republican presidential campaign in Iowa will turn sharply this weekend from persuading undecided voters to mobilizing them to attend their local caucuses on what could be a chilly night Tuesday, with none of the six candidates campaigning here plugged into the extensive network that helped former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee win four years ago.

Unpredictable to the end, many of Iowa's GOP voters still hadn't settled on a favorite candidate just hours before they cast the first ballots of the 2012 presidential contest.

"It might come down to the speeches at the caucuses," Phil Ubben of Sioux City said. "I want to support someone who can go all the way and defeat the Democrats in November."

The candidates pinned their final hopes on such voters.

"I think anybody can come in first," Gingrich said on CBS' "The Early Show." That was most likely wishful thinking for the former House speaker, who has lost momentum after surging to the front of the GOP pack late in 2011.

Training their sights on the pack leader, Gingrich and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum questioned Romney's conservative credentials and predicted Obama would, to use Gingrich's words, "tear him apart."

The two who appeared most likely to challenge Romney for victory in Iowa were Santorum and libertarian Rep. Ron Paul of Texas — neither of whom is likely to present as serious a challenge to Romney over the long haul as would Gingrich or Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who also has fallen back.

Santorum, appearing on ABC's "Good Morning America," said Iowans are "looking for the candidate they can trust, and that's why we're moving up in the polls."

On Tuesday night, Republicans will gather in living rooms, high school gymnasiums and local libraries for caucuses that start the process of picking the 2012 GOP nominee. In each precinct caucus, voters will urge their friends and neighbors to support a preferred candidate. For all of the attention paid to the caucuses, they are essentially a nonbinding straw poll that awards no delegates. Republicans do that at county and district conventions later in the year.

Most polls in recent days have put Romney and Paul atop the field in Iowa, with Santorum in third and gaining ground. More than a third of all potential caucus-goers said they could yet change their minds.

Perry, Gingrich and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann all trailed. Paul has said he does not envision himself in the White House.

Romney faces the same challenge he did in 2008: winning over a conservative base that's uncomfortable with his moderate past. In 2008, socially conservative voters united behind Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, denying Romney a first-place finish and contributing to his eventual defeat.

This time, Romney's trying to win Iowa by arguing he's the most electable candidate against Obama — a pitch that's winning over conservatives who desperately want to beat the president.

"I want to make sure I vote for and caucus for someone who is a winner. We cannot have another four years of Obama," said eyeglass salesman Paul Massey, 65.

How many people turn out to vote will help drive the results. In 2008, more than 120,000 Republicans showed up, a record. Weather could be a factor in this year's attendance. Iowa hasn't had much snow this winter, and there were clear but cold forecasts across the state.

After Tuesday's vote, Romney, Gingrich and Santorum planned to depart immediately for New Hampshire. Romney holds a commanding lead in polls there, and will be in a strong position to win even if he doesn't pull out a victory in Iowa. Paul plans to join his rivals in New Hampshire later in the week. The primary is Jan. 10.

Perry and Bachmann don't plan to compete in New Hampshire, instead heading straight from Iowa to the first-in-the-South primary, set for Jan. 21 in South Carolina. Romney also plans to visit South Carolina this week, with campaign stops Thursday and Friday.