Hi-Line braces for near-certain flooding

Hi-Line braces for near-certain flooding

Meeting set for tonight in Chinook

Tim Leeds

With one of the wettest winters in more than a decade coming toward its end, local officials — especially in Blaine County — are making preparations for likely floods.

"We are expecting flooding at the Harlem gaging station …, " Blaine County Disaster and Emergency Services Coordinator Haley Gustitis said Friday, adding that the amount of flooding really is the question.

"It all depends on how the (snow) melt comes off, " she said,

Hill County Commission Chair Mike Wendland said county officials also are keeping an eye on how rapidly snow will melt — and how rapidly water will run and fill streams — this spring.

"We're concerned, " he said. "We're watching it. "

Blaine County is going a bit further. A meeting is set for 7 p. m. tonight in the county library meeting room in Chinook to tell residents about the concerns, what they can do to prepare and the need to buy flood insurance early to make certain property is covered.

***High levels of snow compounded by soil moisture

Gina Loss, service hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Great Falls, said the areas of greatest concern are in northern Hill and Blaine counties.

Loss said, from Harlem east, the Weather Service is predicting a 98-percent chance of minor flooding with a 90-percent chance of moderate to severe flooding. That level of flooding could lead to much more than just lowland flooding, with potential impacts to roads and businesses, she said.

"We're talking about more impacts than just in pastures, " she said.

The chance of flooding comes less than a year after severe floods in June on Rocky Boy's Indian Reservation and along Beaver Creek in Hill County led to President Barack Obama declaring the region a federal disaster area.

Loss, who is scheduled to be at the Blaine County meeting tonight, said the expected flooding is of a different nature. Last June's flooding came after a heavy rainstorm fell on ground already saturated by snow melt and rainfall in April, May and June, which already had caused some flooding.

This year, high levels of snowpack, with high levels of water in the snow, are expected to melt off over ground already quite moist following last year's precipitation. The ground will not give much of a buffer to absorb spring runoff, Loss said.

The latest flood outlook for Montana east of the Continental Divide, released last week, is available through a link at the top of the Great Falls Weather Service website.

Some of the highest water levels in the state are north and west of Havre to just a little east of Harlem in Blaine County, which have not had as much snow melt or blow off, as well.

That area, including north across the Canadian border, has patches listed on a national reporting site as having 8 inches to 12 inches worth of water.

Patches in the Bear's Paw Mountains also has areas listed as holding 6 inches to 10 inches of water, and the higher level of snow-water equivalent also extends from northwest of Havre down to the Big Sandy area.

That model of the likelihood of flooding does not include precipitation that could increase flooding.

"What we cannot take into account is a big rainstorm, " Loss said.

***No extreme warmth forecast soon

While temperatures are expected to moderate, the National Weather Service forecast for the Havre area is not calling for an extreme increase in temperatures, which could help with slower melting and runoff.

The forecast for this week does call for high temperatures in the 30s Wednesday and lower 40s Thursday, but dropping back into the 20s for Friday and in the low 30s Saturday and Sunday.

The eight to 14 day forecast for Montana east of the divide calls for above-normal precipitation and near normal temperatures.

Continued La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with other data, are calling for continued below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation in the northern tier of states to to Western Great Lakes region for the next 30 days.

***Flooding a concern but less of an issue for Hill County

Joe Parenteau, DES coordinator for Hill County, said this morning that the greatest concerns here also are from the north. How much, if any, flooding occurs will depend on temperatures and precipitation.

"At this point it all depends on the weather and how fast the melting comes, " he said.

The problems are not as severe south of Havre, including in the Bear's Paw Mountains, Parenteau said. Much of those regions already have seen some melting, reducing the amount of snow. While there still are levels of high snow and high water equivalent in the mountains, those are patchy, he said.

He also said that if a heavy rainstorm falls during the snow melt, it could create additional problems.

The areas with the highest water level — Weather Service personnel are planning to take actual measurements this week — primarily would drain into the Milk River, increasing its level and potentially causing flooding en route.

"So, we're just kind of watching those areas and areas that we've had problems with before, " Parenteau said.

***Preparing reservoirs for runoff

Parenteau said one thing the county and the federal government have been doing is lowering the level of reservoirs to catch and hold spring runoff.

Hill County had problems with the gate system at Beaver Creek Reservoir just south of Havre last summer, preventing any release of water. That problem has been resolved, and the county began releasing water several weeks ago.

The release was reduced after ice jams and flooding became problems north of the dam.

The federal Bureau of Reclamation also has been releasing additional water from Fresno Reservoir west of Havre, both to increase its storage level and to help reduce the amount of ice in the Milk River.

"The dams are in a good position to hold a lot of the runoff, " Parenteau said.

***Preparing for the worst

The meeting tonight in Blaine County is mostly to help people prepare for the worst.

Gustitis and Parenteau both said one key is property owners make sure they have flood insurance, and have it in time. Flood insurance must be in place at least 30 days before flooding occurs.

Gustitis said the meeting also will cover the expectations of possible flooding, and letting people know they need to have an emergency plan in place and be prepared.

That includes making sure they have at least 72 hours worth of supplies in case they are cut off due to flooding, she said.

"They just need to be prepared for anything that might happen, " she said. ——— Online: Great Falls National Weather Service website: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/tfx/ National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center, snowpack water levels: http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov

With one of the wettest winters in more than a decade coming toward its end, local officials — especially in Blaine County — are making preparations for likely floods.

"We are expecting flooding at the Harlem gaging station …, " Blaine County Disaster and Emergency Services Coordinator Haley Gustitis said Friday, adding that the amount of flooding really is the question.

"It all depends on how the (snow) melt comes off, " she said,

Hill County Commission Chair Mike Wendland said county officials also are keeping an eye on how rapidly snow will melt — and how rapidly water will run and fill streams — this spring.

"We're concerned, " he said. "We're watching it. "

Blaine County is going a bit further. A meeting is set for 7 p. m. tonight in the county library meeting room in Chinook to tell residents about the concerns, what they can do to prepare and the need to buy flood insurance early to make certain property is covered.

High levels of snow compounded by soil moisture

Gina Loss, service hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Great Falls, said the areas of greatest concern are in northern Hill and Blaine counties.

Loss said, from Harlem east, the Weather Service is predicting a 98-percent chance of minor flooding with a 90-percent chance of moderate to severe flooding. That level of flooding could lead to much more than just lowland flooding, with potential impacts to roads and businesses, she said.

"We're talking about more impacts than just in pastures, " she said.

The chance of flooding comes less than a year after severe floods in June on Rocky Boy's Indian Reservation and along Beaver Creek in Hill County led to President Barack Obama declaring the region a federal disaster area.

Loss, who is scheduled to be at the Blaine County meeting tonight, said the expected flooding is of a different nature. Last June's flooding came after a heavy rainstorm fell on ground already saturated by snow melt and rainfall in April, May and June, which already had caused some flooding.

This year, high levels of snowpack, with high levels of water in the snow, are expected to melt off over ground already quite moist following last year's precipitation. The ground will not give much of a buffer to absorb spring runoff, Loss said.

The latest flood outlook for Montana east of the Continental Divide, released last week, is available through a link at the top of the Great Falls Weather Service website.

Some of the highest water levels in the state are north and west of Havre to just a little east of Harlem in Blaine County, which have not had as much snow melt or blow off, as well.

That area, including north across the Canadian border, has patches listed on a national reporting site as having 8 inches to 12 inches worth of water.

Patches in the Bear's Paw Mountains also has areas listed as holding 6 inches to 10 inches of water, and the higher level of snow-water equivalent also extends from northwest of Havre down to the Big Sandy area.

That model of the likelihood of flooding does not include precipitation that could increase flooding.

"What we cannot take into account is a big rainstorm, " Loss said.

No extreme warmth forecast soon

While temperatures are expected to moderate, the National Weather Service forecast for the Havre area is not calling for an extreme increase in temperatures, which could help with slower melting and runoff.

The forecast for this week does call for high temperatures in the 30s Wednesday and lower 40s Thursday, but dropping back into the 20s for Friday and in the low 30s Saturday and Sunday.

The eight to 14 day forecast for Montana east of the divide calls for above-normal precipitation and near normal temperatures.

Continued La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with other data, are calling for continued below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation in the northern tier of states to to Western Great Lakes region for the next 30 days.

Flooding a concern, but less of an issue for Hill County

Joe Parenteau, DES coordinator for Hill County, said this morning that the greatest concerns here also are from the north. How much, if any, flooding occurs will depend on temperatures and precipitation.

"At this point it all depends on the weather and how fast the melting comes, " he said.

The problems are not as severe south of Havre, including in the Bear's Paw Mountains, Parenteau said. Much of those regions already have seen some melting, reducing the amount of snow. While there still are levels of high snow and high water equivalent in the mountains, those are patchy, he said.

He also said that if a heavy rainstorm falls during the snow melt, it could create additional problems.

The areas with the highest water level — Weather Service personnel are planning to take actual measurements this week — primarily would drain into the Milk River, increasing its level and potentially causing flooding en route.

"So, we're just kind of watching those areas and areas that we've had problems with before, " Parenteau said.

Preparing reservoirs for runoff

Parenteau said one thing the county and the federal government have been doing is lowering the level of reservoirs to catch and hold spring runoff.

Hill County had problems with the gate system at Beaver Creek Reservoir just south of Havre last summer, preventing any release of water. That problem has been resolved, and the county began releasing water several weeks ago.

The release was reduced after ice jams and flooding became problems north of the dam.

The federal Bureau of Reclamation also has been releasing additional water from Fresno Reservoir west of Havre, both to increase its storage level and to help reduce the amount of ice in the Milk River.

"The dams are in a good position to hold a lot of the runoff, " Parenteau said.

Preparing for the worst

The meeting tonight in Blaine County is mostly to help people prepare for the worst.

Gustitis and Parenteau both said one key is property owners make sure they have flood insurance, and have it in time. Flood insurance must be in place at least 30 days before flooding occurs.

Gustitis said the meeting also will cover the expectations of possible flooding, and letting people know they need to have an emergency plan in place and be prepared.

That includes making sure they have at least 72 hours worth of supplies in case they are cut off due to flooding, she said.

"They just need to be prepared for anything that might happen, " she said.

Online:

Great Falls National Weather Service website

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center, snowpack water levels